Guangfa Futures: Expectations of reversing the internal competition drive polysilicon futures higher

There are no significant changes in the fundamentals of today’s rally; the main driver comes from last Friday’s photovoltaic industry symposium held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments. From the supply and demand perspective, oversupply still exists, and after a sharp increase in futures prices opened the hedging arbitrage window, upstream companies’ production enthusiasm is expected to further increase, and future supply remains high. If production increases, it will first put pressure on spot prices, and second, increase warehouse receipts, putting pressure on futures. If demand does not recover significantly, the oversupply situation may continue or even deepen. From the perspective of anti-involution expectations, referencing last year’s anti-involution, if prices again rise above the full cost, they may develop toward the 50k yuan/ton level previously mentioned. Pay attention to changes in corporate quotes and corresponding changes in operating enthusiasm. From a technical standpoint, polysilicon futures show a continued upward trend, but from the fundamentals, there are no obvious signs of improvement; oversupply will still pressure prices. The two have not yet resonated, but price fluctuations are large, so trading/speculative funds are advised to use options tools. Upstream companies can consider hedging in the appropriate higher-priced distant-month contracts, while downstream companies are still recommended to mainly purchase spot goods at current lower prices. (GF Futures)