Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31" probability rises to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Insight Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket “The Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31” has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.

The event contract rules are: If the International Monetary Fund Portwatch reports on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, that the 7-day moving average of transit ships entering the Strait of Hormuz (“ships arriving”) is equal to or greater than 60, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No.” The daily number of transit ships includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

It is reported that U.S. Vice President Vance will visit Pakistan on Tuesday for Iran talks. U.S. President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran “will negotiate,” and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate; if they do not, unprecedented problems will arise. He also expressed hope that both sides can reach a “fair agreement” and emphasized that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. He further justified military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final work will be completed.

Odaily Seer Insight Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.