Notice an interesting phenomenon. In recent weeks, retail investors have been actively buying Bitcoin, and the number of small wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC has hit a new high since mid-2024. But this rebound has never really had momentum; prices have repeatedly oscillated between 73K and 74K, and every time they rally higher, they get pushed back down.

According to on-chain data, the problem is here: the so-called big holders (holders of 10-10000 BTC) have been going the opposite way since last October, continuously reducing their positions. Put simply, retail investors are buying, while the big whales are selling. This kind of opposing situation leaves the market with neither a clear uptrend nor a full-on downtrend—just awkward sideways trading.

What’s interesting is that during the February selloff that crashed to 60K, medium-sized wallets did indeed buy the dip. But the largest holders have been distributing in batches during every rebound. So you’ll find that while retail Bitcoin buying provides some bottom support, it’s far from enough to carry a truly meaningful run. It’s like retail investors are the only ones picking up the coins, while major institutions reduce their holdings at every rebound.

The perpetual contracts market also confirms this: the funding rate has been negative for 46 consecutive days, indicating that far more traders are short than long. Historically, these prolonged risk-avoidance phases often suggest that a sharp surge is right around the corner—but the prerequisite is that the big holders have to stop selling. Small retail investors have already done their part; now it’s just a matter of when the big wallets will join the ranks of Bitcoin buyers.