I just reviewed some interesting data about Bitcoin whales this week. While retail has been buying the dips below $70k, the large holders did the exact opposite: they bought aggressively recently when everything was crashing, and then sold almost 66% of those positions when the price rebounded to $74k. That’s the classic pattern that usually precedes deeper corrections, according to Santiment.

What catches my attention is that the market is stuck in this very rare cycle. Bitcoin went from $60k to $74k in just over a month, but now it’s back at $68k. Rallies meet sellers who want to break even, and every dip attracts retail looking for a rebound. Meanwhile, around 43% of the total supply is in loss, meaning any rebound faces desperate sellers trying to recover their money.

The fear index hit 12 last weekend, practically in pure panic territory. So basically, the market is at a crossroads: either the whales are right and we test the $60k again, or retail manages to absorb all that selling pressure and we break strongly above $74k. For now, the behavior of the big holders suggests they’re betting on the first option. We’ll see what happens in the coming days.