Is a rate cut coming? But war + oil prices are the real "hidden bombs"! Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's latest statement: a rate cut may still happen later this year, but she also warns that oil price fluctuations caused by the Iran conflict are dragging down overall economic expectations. Many people only see the "rate cut benefits" but overlook a more critical point: this is not ordinary inflation, but a comprehensive supply shock. How extensive is the impact? Gasoline, natural gas, fertilizers, food, shipping, semiconductors—it's almost like saying: the entire economic cost is rising.

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