On Monday, tensions in the Middle East rapidly shook the global markets. Oil prices surged above $110 per barrel, experiencing an approximately 17% jump within 24 hours. Concerns over supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz triggered this. As a result, major global indices fell sharply; the Nikkei dropped over 6%, and the Kospi declined about 8%. This was a significant blow to energy-importing economies.

The situation on the crypto side looks different. Bitcoin remained stable around $74,000, with no clear signs of panic selling. Ether and Solana also posted modest gains. Markets seem to interpret this not as a general risk-off but as an energy-specific shock.

The futures markets are signaling interesting indications. On Polymarket, the probability of crude oil reaching $120 by the end of March is priced at 76%. However, the Federal Reserve's likelihood of not changing interest rates in March is around 98%. This suggests the market expects the Fed to remain calm despite inflation pressures. On Hyperliquid, the funding rates for oil futures have turned negative, indicating traders are positioning for a pullback.