I just noticed something that has me a little worried about Bitcoin. The MACD, that indicator many traders use to detect momentum changes, recently turned negative again. And the thing is, since October when BTC hit all-time highs, every time this indicator crosses into red territory, what follows is a pretty strong drop.

For those who don’t know what a MACD histogram is, basically, it compares two moving averages and shows you whether the momentum is bullish or bearish. When it turns red like it is now, it means sellers are gaining ground. What’s interesting is the pattern: every bearish signal since October has been followed by major selling, while the rebounds when it turns green are weak and quickly fall back again.

The story repeats itself. In November, the MACD turned red and BTC dropped from $106K a $80K. Then there was a small rebound, but nothing serious. In January, something similar happened: the red signal appeared around $90K and then came the drop to about $60K. Each bullish rebound barely reaches $75K before losing momentum.

Now it’s red again with BTC at $73.63K. I’m not saying this is a guarantee of anything, but the pattern is too consistent to ignore. Sellers are in control, and any attempt at a recovery seems destined to fail fast. It’s definitely time to stay cautious and not get too confident in small rebounds.