I noticed an interesting thing in the crypto market — Bitcoin seems to be growing, but it all looks quite fragile. Yesterday, I saw the cryptocurrency price rise to $68,500, and then it dropped below $66 thousand in just a few hours. A typical picture: the dollar strengthened, the Fed made harsh comments, and suddenly all the bulls ran away. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $73.85K, but that doesn’t mean the trend is stable.

The macroeconomic background has indeed slightly improved. Inflation has decreased, and the market expects rate cuts — at first glance, this should support risky assets. But here’s the problem: the Fed does not intend to sharply ease policy. Most likely, there will be a gradual, cautious approach. This creates a situation where the cryptocurrency price can make tactical jumps, but sustaining them is not possible.

Analysts from major financial firms describe the market as wave-like, not as a pure breakout. Volatility remains high, and each rebound is absorbed by sales. On the spot market, recovery is happening, but it’s slow and unstable. Positions are becoming increasingly defensive, long-term holders show signs of stress — similar to what was seen at the end of the bearish market in 2022.

What worries me: Bitcoin’s dynamics are too strongly correlated with the dollar’s strengthening. If investors realize that dollar growth is a trend, there could be a sharp spike in volatility. The cryptocurrency market is currently 17% below its 50-day moving average and 31% below the 200-day. That’s very far from normal support levels.

The fear index has shown consistent readings for nine days out of the last fourteen. Stablecoin outflows from exchanges indicate tightening liquidity. In short, the crypto price is now caught between improving macroeconomic prospects and persistent selling pressure.

For sustainable growth, several conditions are needed: clear confirmation of disinflation, dollar weakening, stable spot demand, and reduced stablecoin outflows. None of this is happening yet. Tactical rises are possible, especially when positions become too defensive, but this is not a real rally. It’s just rebounds amid oversold conditions. The crypto price may still fluctuate, but without serious macroeconomic shifts, upward movement will be irregular and short-lived.