I just reviewed some interesting analyses about where Bitcoin is headed right now. What’s clear is that liquidity is the main driver of the current rally, but there’s something many are not considering enough: the upcoming halving cycle.

Lately, institutional capital flows have been quite aggressive. Market infrastructure has been significantly strengthened, making it easier for large volumes to enter without causing too much volatility. This is what’s supporting prices at these levels.

But here’s where it gets interesting. According to analysts from institutions like Schwab, the halving cycle could be a critical inflection point for the rally. Historically, halvings have generated scarcity expectations that drive prices, but this time the context is different. If liquidity pulls back in the coming months, we could see a deeper correction than many expect.

What I’m observing is that the market is too focused on the short term. The liquidity dynamic is strong now, but cycles always change. The 2026 halving cycle could mark the moment when the narrative shifts, especially if institutional flows start to decline.

This is why it’s important not to lose sight of the bigger picture. Liquidity drives the market, but fundamental cycles are what determine long-term trends. It’s worth paying attention to how these dynamics develop in the coming months.