March 12, 2026: A-shares experience a rollercoaster, with the energy sector leading against the trend

Record of the 151st trading day, total assets 6.48 million
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Today’s A-shares experienced a rollercoaster, with the energy sector leading against the trend

Today marks the first trading day after the Two Sessions closed, but it did not bring the expected “closing rally.” Instead, a highly segmented market divergence unfolded. The three major indices all closed lower, but the decline was limited: the Shanghai Composite dipped only 0.10%, closing at 4129.10 points. However, beneath the surface calm, turbulent currents flowed—nearly 3,900 stocks declined, with fewer than 1,600 stocks rising, showing a typical pattern of “indices stable, individual stocks mostly down.” The total market turnover was 2.46 trillion yuan, about 66.5 billion yuan less than yesterday, indicating strong market caution and a clear preference for stock preservation over new positions.

On the market, the “ice and fire” phenomenon was very prominent. On one side, cyclically driven sectors like energy and chemicals surged against the trend; on the other, tech growth stocks collectively retreated.

Energy and chemicals became safe havens, driven by rising prices

Coal stocks were undoubtedly the brightest stars today, with sector gains exceeding 4%. Yankuang Energy and Zhengzhou Coal & Electricity hit the daily limit, while industry leader China Coal Energy reached an 18-year high. The core driver is the Middle East geopolitical situation—ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Market concerns about global energy supply chain tightness intensified. Some estimates suggest that if the strait remains blocked long-term, global coal demand for power could increase by nearly 85 million tons annually. This provides strong price increase expectations for coal stocks.

The chemical sector also saw a surge in limit-up stocks, with JinNiu Chemical experiencing five limit-ups over nine days, and more than ten constituent stocks hitting the limit. The collective rally in chemical futures overnight was a direct catalyst, with main contracts for para-xylene and PTA hitting the limit, quickly transmitting price increase expectations to A-shares.

Green energy concepts repeatedly gained momentum under policy support, with Green Power and China Power Energy hitting three consecutive limit-ups, GCL System Integration reaching five days of three-limit-ups. The inclusion of green electricity share requirements exceeding 80% for data centers and the “electricity cooperation” initiative being written into government work reports have injected long-term growth logic into the sector.

Tech growth stocks face a cold snap, with clear shifts in capital flow
Contrasting sharply with the vigorous cyclic stocks, previously active sectors like military, semiconductors, and AI computing experienced deep corrections. This reflects a clear reallocation of funds. Major capital outflows occurred from electronics and electrical equipment sectors, while funds flooded into basic chemicals and coal, which are cyclically driven. Amid shrinking market volume and declining risk appetite, funds withdrew from high-valued growth sectors at high levels, favoring defensive sectors with price increase potential, lower valuations, and higher dividend yields—completing a typical “high-low switch.”

Geopolitical and policy dual drivers, focusing on certainty for the future
The core theme today is clear: energy price increases driven by geopolitical risks, and domestic policies supporting industries like “electricity and computing synergy,” have become safe havens for existing funds. Conversely, sectors lacking short-term catalysts, with high valuations and large gains, are experiencing significant outflows.

This structural divergence may continue in the short term. At the index level, the Shanghai Composite above 4100 points shows some support, but shrinking volume limits upward potential, likely leading to range-bound fluctuations. In trading strategies, focusing less on indices and more on specific sectors remains key. Continue to prioritize main themes with performance support and clear catalysts, such as energy and chemicals benefiting from global stagflation expectations, and green energy and grid equipment supported by ongoing policy efforts. For high-priced tech stocks, remain cautious of profit-taking pressures; wait for clearer signs of stabilization before deploying.

Overall, today’s market, with its extreme divergence, illustrates the risk-averse and cautious mindset amid the complex macro environment. With limited willingness for incremental capital entry, sector “herding” based on certainty may still be the main theme.