"Spring Festival Effect" Fails? The Silver Registration Center's Non-Performing Loans Listed in February Show a Month-on-Month Decline, and the Market is Shifting from "Explosive" to "Normal"

In early March 2026, the Credit Asset Registration and Transfer Center of the banking industry (hereinafter referred to as the “YinDeng Center”) released the data for bad loan transfers listed in February. A key change drew market attention: the total amount of bad loans listed in that month was 13.93 billion yuan.

This not only represents a significant decrease of 49.39% compared to 27.52 billion yuan in the same period last year but also a month-on-month decline of 12.36% from 15.89 billion yuan in January 2026. This is the first time since 2024 that the YinDeng Center has seen a month-on-month decrease in listing scale in February.

After reaching a historic high in January 2026, with a year-on-year surge of 4.45 times, this “double decline” data seems to temporarily slow down the previously hot bad loan transfer market.

However, behind this simple scale reduction is a deeper market structural evolution. In February 2026, 16 institutions listed 61 bad loan asset packages. Ping An Bank led with 2.815 billion yuan, followed by Jiangsu Bank with 2.362 billion yuan. The listings of China Construction Bank, BOC Consumer Finance, Chongqing Ant Financial Consumer Finance, and Bank of Communications also exceeded 1 billion yuan each.

A notable feature is that consumer finance companies have become an important supply source in the market. In that month, five licensed consumer finance institutions listed a total of 3.737 billion yuan, accounting for 26.83% of the total scale. Meanwhile, the number of listings reached a near three-year high of 61. This indicates that, amid the overall decline in total amount, the average size of each asset package is shrinking, reflecting a trend of “small amounts with many transactions.” The concentration among leading institutions is also decreasing, with the combined share of the top three institutions dropping from 78.11% in February 2024 and 65.45% in February 2025 to 48.08% in February 2026.

A senior banking industry analyst pointed out that the month-on-month decline in February 2026 was partly influenced by seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival holiday. However, more importantly, it signals that the market may be transitioning from explosive growth over the past two years to a phase of stabilization at a high level and structural optimization.

“Seasonal factors need to be considered carefully. Simply attributing the February decline to the Spring Festival holiday is insufficient. The marginal change in the market’s internal momentum is more worth noting,” said a person from a city commercial bank’s asset management department in western China, speaking to the Daily Economic News. The 13.93 billion yuan scale remains at a high level of hundreds of millions, indicating that the fundamental demand for bad loan transfers remains solid. Meanwhile, institutions are shifting from “concentrated sell-offs” to more planned and normalized “gradual water flow” strategies.

Market Turning Point: First Decline in February in Three Years, Listing Structure Reflects Diversified Pattern

Reviewing data from the past three years, the trend of bad loan transfer listings at the YinDeng Center in February 2026 shows a significant reversal.

In 2024, the listing scale jumped from 1.304 billion yuan in January to 8.253 billion yuan in February, a month-on-month increase of 532.90%. In 2025, it surged from 3.572 billion yuan in January to 27.524 billion yuan in February, a 670.55% increase. This “opening of the year with a strong start” pattern was typical in the market. However, in 2026, the trend changed: after listing 15.895 billion yuan in January, February did not continue to grow but instead declined to 13.93 billion yuan.

In 2026, the entire bad loan transfer market, under the influence of favorable policies and institutional strategy adjustments, has shown a new face. On January 7, 2026, the YinDeng Center issued a notice clarifying that from January 1, 2026, the transfer service fee for bad loans would continue to be waived, and transaction service fees would be discounted by 20%. Additionally, the pilot program for bulk transfer of personal bad loans was extended until December 31, 2026.

A senior banking researcher said that the continuation of fee discounts directly reduces banks’ disposal costs, and the extension of the pilot provides stable policy expectations, encouraging institutions to plan for the medium and long term rather than only rushing at year-end or early in the year.

Regarding listing subjects, market participants are becoming more diverse and balanced. In February 2026, the list of listed institutions includes state-owned banks, joint-stock banks like Ping An Bank, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications, as well as licensed consumer finance companies such as BOC Consumer Finance, Ant Financial Consumer Finance, Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Gannan Rural Commercial Bank, and others. The Jiangsu region, especially, shows active participation, with Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Nanjing Rural Commercial Bank, and Jiangsu Gannan Rural Commercial Bank listing a total of 3.327 billion yuan, accounting for 23.89%.

This reflects an expanding depth and breadth of market-oriented bad loan disposal, from national banks to local small and medium-sized banks, from traditional commercial banks to consumer finance companies, with various institutions utilizing this platform to optimize their balance sheets.

It is also important to consider seasonal factors carefully.

The 2025 Spring Festival holiday was from January 28 to February 4, which could impact business activities in both January and February. However, comparing the data—35.72 billion yuan in January and 27.524 billion yuan in February—shows a 670.55% surge in February, a typical “post-holiday concentrated release.”

In 2026, January’s listing reached 15.895 billion yuan (a 345% year-on-year increase), but February did not continue the growth, instead falling back to 13.93 billion yuan.

“This indicates that simply attributing the February decline to the Spring Festival holiday is insufficient. The internal momentum of the market’s marginal change is more worth paying attention to,” said a person from a city commercial bank’s asset management department. “After the explosive growth in the total amount of non-performing loans and principal in 2025, which exceeded 430 billion yuan, the market may now be entering a new consolidation phase.”

From the perspective of overall asset quality of banks, data from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission shows that at the end of Q4 2025, the non-performing loan balance of commercial banks was 3.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24.1 billion yuan from the previous quarter; the NPL ratio remained stable at 1.50%, down 0.02 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The aforementioned banking analyst said that the stability of the industry’s overall asset quality provides banks with more confidence and space to accelerate the disposal of existing bad loans through market means, rather than being a reactive response driven by rising bad loan ratios.

Policy Drivers and Institutional Strategies: The Logic Behind Extended Pilots and Fee Discounts

Behind the market activity is the urgent need of financial institutions, especially consumer finance companies, to accelerate the clearance of existing risks.

At the start of 2026, consumer finance companies became the dominant players in the transfer market. According to media reports, in January 2026 alone, leading consumer finance firms such as Zhaolian Finance, BOC Consumer Finance, and Ant Financial Consumer Finance listed bad personal loan assets totaling over 11 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the total listings that month. This structural change is closely related to the industry’s customer base sinking, high proportion of credit loans, and significant pressure from bad debt generation.

Regarding asset package features, the current listings generally show the characteristics of “three highs and one low”: high proportion of credit loans, long overdue periods, high loss rates, and low litigation rates.

For example, the first batch of personal bad loans (credit card overdraft) transferred by Ping An Bank in 2026 involved 11,600 loans, with an average overdue of 1,104.65 days. All were classified as loss, and all were credit-type loans. Except for one loan that has been fully executed, the rest have not entered litigation.

A person from a city commercial bank explained that this reflects banks and consumer finance companies’ preference to quickly offload “hard-to-recover” assets—those that remain unrecovered after long internal collection efforts and are costly to pursue judicially—by bulk transfer, achieving “true off-balance sheet” and lighter capital burdens.

Continued policy support provides a runway for this “debt reduction” effort. Since the launch of the bad loan transfer pilot in 2021, the scope of participating institutions has expanded from the initial state-owned and joint-stock banks to policy banks, city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, consumer finance companies, and auto finance companies. By the end of 2025, over a thousand institutions had opened business accounts, with transaction volumes soaring from 18.648 billion yuan in 2021 to over 430 billion yuan in 2025.

Experts note that after five years of development, the YinDeng Center has shifted from a supplementary tool for bad asset disposal to a main platform, especially for small and medium-sized banks and consumer finance companies with high retail exposure and pressure from bad asset disposal. It has become one of the most efficient standardized channels for disposal.

The Path to Normalization: From “Scale Expansion” to “Value Discovery” in Market Evolution

As the market expands and more participants join, the bad loan transfer market is moving from an early “scale expansion” stage toward “value discovery” and “regulatory development.”

A key indicator is the persistently low transfer discount rate. According to United Credit Rating, the average discount rate for bulk personal bad loan transfers has remained low since 2022, with about 4.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This means that a debt with a face value of 100 yuan might be transferred at around 4 yuan. The low price reflects the combined effects of asset quality, recovery difficulty, and time costs.

Market transaction mechanisms are also continuously improving. Notably, since October 27, 2025, the YinDeng Center adjusted its information disclosure methods, and new transfer announcements no longer publicly disclose the starting bid price of assets. A person from a city commercial bank explained that this change aims to guide market participants to focus more on the intrinsic value and disposal capacity of asset packages rather than solely on price bidding, helping to develop a more professional and refined valuation system.

Meanwhile, while extending the pilot, regulators have also strengthened internal controls and audit requirements, emphasizing that institutions must conduct self-inspections and special audits on due diligence, valuation, and approval processes. Experts stress that this signals a shift from pursuing scale growth to emphasizing regulatory compliance and risk prevention, aiming to solidify the market foundation, prevent moral hazard, and promote the “clean” off-balance sheet of bad assets.

For asset management companies (AMCs), challenges and opportunities coexist. Regulations stipulate that AMCs cannot resell bulk acquired personal loans externally and can only handle them through self-collection, restructuring, or other means. This compels AMCs to establish professional teams for collection, litigation, and mediation, and to adopt technological systems, transforming from simple “asset movers” to true “value restorers.” Tech empowerment, such as big data and AI for debtor profiling, asset layering, and intelligent collection, has become standard among leading players.

The above experts believe that under the influence of macroeconomic conditions, regulatory policies, and the transformation needs of financial institutions, the market for transferring bad loans—especially personal consumer loans and credit card bad debts—will remain active. However, the growth logic may shift from outward expansion driven by policy pilots and institutional scope to inward development based on improved disposal capacity, refined pricing models, and ecosystem collaboration. Participants need to recognize that bulk transfers address historical burdens, and long-term competitiveness depends on core capabilities like customer segmentation and risk pricing. The “cooling” in the February 2026 listing data from the YinDeng Center may be a signal of this profound transformation beginning.