Bull Talk: Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ceasefire, Americans Take a Breath of Cold Air

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We can see clearly that the U.S. is eager to end the war because the longer it drags on, the more it feels like a quagmire.

Therefore, Trump keeps saying: The war will end soon.

What is Iran’s attitude?

The U.S. no longer wants to fight, but Iran refuses to agree. Iran has laid out its own conditions.

On the early morning of March 12, Beijing time, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi tweeted:

“During talks with Russian and Pakistani leaders, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to regional peace. The only way to end this war provoked by Zionist regime and the U.S. is to recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay reparations, and for the international community to make firm guarantees to prevent Iran from being invaded again.”

To clarify, Iran’s “Zionist regime” refers to Israel.

Iran’s conditions roughly include three points:

1. The U.S. and Israel recognize Iran’s legitimate rights.

2. The U.S. and Israel pay war reparations.

3. The international community guarantees that the U.S. and Israel will not invade Iran again.

It must be said that these three points are highly targeted. Since Iran considers the other side as the aggressor and has been severely attacked, some form of war compensation is expected.

Moreover, last year there was already a “12th Day War,” and even before the ceasefire agreement was fully implemented, the U.S. and Israel suddenly started a new war. How can we ensure that they will abide by the new ceasefire? This requires strong guarantees from the international community!

But I checked the comments on this post—over 1,000 replies—and Americans seem to be gasping in shock. This isn’t a ceasefire; it’s surrender for the U.S.!

I also saw some analysis:

1. If the U.S. and Israel accept these demands, it would essentially mean admitting defeat in the conflict—which is almost impossible.

2. Trust remains a critical issue: Iran was attacked during negotiations with the U.S., severely undermining the credibility of any future guarantees.

3. No international organization can ensure that Iran’s demands are truly enforced. Russia and Pakistan have limited influence.

In other words, Iran’s conditions seem reasonable, but given that the U.S. is Trump, they are hardly feasible.

But more importantly, these are Iran’s president’s conditions, and he is considered a reformist who favors negotiations; meanwhile, the more hardline Iranian Supreme National Security Council Chairman, Ali Shamkhani, publicly stated: “Tonight (the 11th), we received a message from U.S. President Donald Trump via Omani mediators, requesting ceasefire negotiations. Our response is, as long as the entity of Israel exists, we will not accept any negotiations.”

Iran doesn’t want to talk unless Israel ceases to exist. The U.S. can fight as long as it wants.

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What to do?

Trump has his own way.

Regarding high oil prices, he seems confident and told supporters: Oil prices will definitely fall; this is just a war issue. Such a situation could indeed happen, almost predictably… We can’t expect such a capable president in the future.

What does that mean?

Everything is under the control of the supreme leader; oil prices will fall—only I can do it globally.

A reporter asked him: You just said this (U.S. and Israel attacking Iran) was a “little trip,” and also called it a war—so what exactly is it?

Trump: Well, it’s both. It’s a trip that keeps us away from war. It’s easier than we thought.

He also said: This (the Iran war) is a minor matter… I’ll end it whenever I want.

Trump’s stubbornness and confidence are beyond the questions of U.S. reporters.

But some reporters are not giving up, asking: If the Supreme Leader of Iran is still Hassan Nasrallah’s son, can you still declare victory in this war?

Trump: I don’t want to comment on that…

Just after midnight on March 12, Beijing time, Trump was still giving speeches and boasting.

He told supporters: “Epic Fury Operation”—how about that name? Well, only winning counts as a good name. And we won. Let me say it again: We won. We won within the first hour. Everything is over.

He vividly described: “They (my subordinates) gave me a list. ‘Sir, you can pick a name.’” I asked what the operation code was. They gave me about 20 names, and I was almost falling asleep. I didn’t like any of them. Then I saw ‘Epic Fury,’ and I said, ‘I like this name.’”

He proudly said: Over the past 11 days, our military has almost destroyed Iran. Iran doesn’t even know what hit them, right? They’re asking, “What’s going on?”

I don’t know which Iranian said that, but it doesn’t stop Trump from playing his role.

But think about it—Iran was seriously preparing for negotiations, yet the U.S. and Israel’s missiles rained down, and on the first day of the war, they assassinated Iran’s top leader, Khamenei.

However, after more than ten days of fighting, Iran seems to have stabilized and become more assertive.

Especially since Iran found Iran’s Achilles’ heel—the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons, but blockading the Strait of Hormuz is equivalent to a nuclear attack.

The world is plunging into a severe global oil crisis.

In recent days, international oil prices soared, approaching $120 per barrel; U.S. stock markets plummeted in panic; Americans are voicing their discontent; and a chaotic Trump immediately announced: The war is almost over, and Western countries are rushing to release their oil reserves…

Iran remains unmoved. Besides mining the Strait of Hormuz, on March 11, Iran attacked three cargo ships attempting to secretly pass through the strait. The scenes of explosions after the attacks are shocking.

But Trump’s view is that the Strait of Hormuz is now safe—“I think they (the oil tankers) should use the strait!”

What does that mean?

Don’t be afraid, sail boldly!

But the raging fires in the Strait of Hormuz have chilled the hearts of oil tankers. Trump, you’re just talking comfortably from the sidelines—are you really in a position to tell others to be brave?

Slogans can echo loudly, but the fires only recognize reality.

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Finally, what do I think?

Let’s keep it simple with three points.

First, Trump will soon declare victory and Iran’s “unconditional surrender”!

Don’t doubt it; Trump has his own tricks.

I saw an article on CNN saying: “The White House is crafting a surreal ending scenario, where he personally certifies Iran’s unconditional surrender—even if it’s not really happening.”

On the international stage, the power to define often outweighs the truth.

For example, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said only Trump can judge whether a war is “started, mid, or ended,” and CNN commented, “It’s as if his boss is the sole judge of the region’s fierce flames.”

Also, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki explained: “When President Trump says Iran is in a state of unconditional surrender, he doesn’t mean Iran’s regime will come out and say it… The President will decide when Iran is in a state of unconditional surrender and when they no longer pose a credible and direct threat to the U.S. and its allies.”

What does that mean?

Trump says, “You Iran, surrender unconditionally,” and Iran can’t argue or deny—no use in protesting.

Second, Iran will also declare victory, but the fighting will continue.

That’s inevitable.

Let the world’s only superpower and armed Israel finally be helpless before Iran—what else is victory?

It feels a lot like the Afghanistan war—20 years of fighting, over 2,000 Americans dead, spending over a trillion dollars, and in the end, “the U.S. successfully replaced the Taliban-led Afghan government with… the Taliban!”

Oh, now it should be “the U.S. successfully replaced Iran’s top leader Khamenei with a younger, more hardline Khamenei.”

Even if the U.S. declares victory, as long as Iran firmly controls the Strait of Hormuz, it’s possible to keep oil prices soaring and make the U.S. pay a heavy price—despite China and the world suffering along.

Of course, Iran might implement a new strategy: allowing Chinese and other foreign oil tankers to pass, while the U.S., Israel, and their allies continue to blockade, even possibly supporting Houthi attacks and sealing off the Red Sea.

This would intensify the global oil crisis. The U.S. would find it impossible to withdraw, continuing to strike Iran, plunging into a huge quagmire; U.S. warships escorting might become a nightmare for the U.S. Navy.

The danger of the quagmire is that the more you struggle, the deeper you sink; and war’s quicksand never dries up just because of victory declarations.

Third, even if a ceasefire is achieved, there will be no true peace.

Please forgive my pessimism—on the Middle Eastern land, we should never expect miracles.

Even if all parties truly cease fire, chaos will still persist.

Iran’s three demands are unlikely to be accepted by the U.S.; accepting them would mean U.S. surrender.

Trump’s proclaimed victory won’t be acknowledged by Iran—this isn’t realistic, and it’s a matter of regime dignity and legitimacy.

History in the Middle East shows that violence isn’t something that can be easily turned off. Seeds of hatred, once sown, will always yield the next season’s blades.

After such sacrifices, can Iran swallow this bitter pill? When disaster strikes from the sky, do Gulf countries harbor resentment? Will Israel simply stop fighting after such a fierce and incomplete war?

Tragedies continue to unfold. Today, the world’s attention is on Iran, Israel, the U.S., and Gulf countries, but don’t forget Lebanon is suffering even more.

This morning, Senator Sanders tweeted:

“It’s not just Iran, but Lebanon too. In less than two weeks, Israel has caused the deaths of 570 people and displaced 750,000—more than 10% of the population. Residential buildings have been bombed without warning. The U.S. cannot continue to be complicit in Netanyahu’s war.”

Don’t think Sanders is anti-Semitic; he’s a genuine Jew who once ran for U.S. president and has many supporters!

The U.S. and Israel’s indiscriminate killing of civilians has made him unable to watch. Blood fuels new hatred, and hatred never distinguishes between justice and evil; it only perpetuates tragedy.

Sigh, history has never truly ended a war; it just moves the battlefield from one era to the next, writing new war songs on the ruins.

Personal opinion, not representing any organization.

Finished.

It feels like my mind has gone blank.

I don’t want to say anything more.

This terrible war

Is not only in Iran

But also in Lebanon

And many other places

Those poor people

And even more pitiful are the children who have died

Today is Arbor Day

That land rich in olive trees

Seems even harder to see peace.