The "Little Spring" of the real estate market is worth looking forward to: Beijing renters enter the market, and the prices of school district houses hit bottom and stabilize

With the Two Sessions underway, while the government work report emphasizes “stabilizing the housing market,” Beijing’s real estate market is gradually emerging from its earlier adjustment phase, showing signs of gentle recovery.

A newly opened model unit in Tongzhou District, Beijing, is experiencing a surge of visitors. Sales consultant Zhang Xin (pseudonym) said, “On the first day, we had over 600 groups of clients; even more on weekends, so visits need to be scheduled in advance.” He revealed that the project is awaiting pre-sale approval and is expected to launch during the “Golden March and Silver April” spring season. Although the opening discounts are already substantial, the unexpectedly high enthusiasm has prompted developers to reconsider the size of the discounts.

“Prices hit bottom at the end of December last year and have now stabilized,” said Zhang Peng (pseudonym), a broker in Zhongguancun, Lianjia. He clearly senses a shift in market sentiment—owners are no longer rushing to lower prices as they did earlier, some homebuyers are no longer waiting to sell their current homes before buying, and even renters are starting to enter the market.

During visits, Xindichan found that the housing demand accumulated during the Spring Festival holiday is gradually being released. Currently, new projects in Haidian, Changping, Fengtai, and Tongzhou are preparing for the “Golden March and Silver April” launch period. Promotions, model home openings, and other activities are in full swing to seize this spring home-buying window.

Guo Yi, Chief Analyst at Heshuo Agency, stated that the market trend is closely linked to policy environment. This year’s Two Sessions proposed “stabilizing the housing market.” Compared to last year’s continuous efforts to “promote the market to stop falling and stabilize,” an important change is that the work of halting the decline has largely been accomplished based on market performance, and the market is now entering a bottoming-out and stabilization phase.

Data shows that since the new policies introduced in August last year, Beijing’s second-hand housing transactions have approached 100,000 units. This wave of transactions has released a large amount of replacement demand, with many owners selling their homes to buy new or improved second-hand properties, creating a healthy cycle of “selling old and buying new.” In January alone, Beijing’s second-hand transactions reached 15,000 units, continuing the upward trend. Guo Yi pointed out that policy effects are still unfolding, and the markets for second-hand and new homes are expected to continue boosting each other, making this year’s “small spring” market worth期待.

Market Segmentation: Suburban Small Three-Bedroom Units Become Traffic Drivers

Recently, 58.com and Anjuke released the “Spring Festival Home Buying Survey—Housing Trends Outlook for 2026” (hereinafter “the Survey”), which analyzed the housing consumption tendencies, key decision factors, and the impact of promotional policies among prospective buyers in first- and new-first-tier cities. The survey dissects core variables influencing housing decisions during the 2026 Spring Festival.

The survey shows that 60.7% of respondents already have clear housing needs. The role of discounts is to “accelerate the process” rather than “create demand.” About 30% of homebuyers prioritize “value,” focusing more on location, school districts, medical facilities, commercial areas, and core product features like layout and quality. They also consider policy windows and housing price trends when choosing the right time to buy, and will not compromise on their housing needs due to short-term discounts.

Data indicates that in January and February this year, high-end improvement projects like China Overseas Lijinfu in Fengtai’s southwest Third Ring ranked first in new home sales in the area. At the site, the tea break area was nearly full, with many buyers holding floor plans and engaging in discussions. One group had already entered the signing process, with staff assisting in verifying details. Around the model, more than ten groups of visitors were viewing, while sales staff explained the project.

A sales representative at China Overseas Lijinfu pointed to the model with an infrared pen, saying the project has mature supporting facilities nearby. The project offers 130, 136, and 165 square meter pure improvement four-bedroom units with over 90% efficiency, with recorded prices of 113,000–120,000 yuan per square meter, opening at about 110,000 yuan. Considering the high efficiency, the actual inside price is around 100,000 yuan per square meter. Currently, with additional Spring Festival discounts, transaction prices can reach about 100,000 yuan. The main target groups are those seeking asset optimization and replacement in Xicheng and Fengtai, as well as commuters working in Lizhe and Financial Street areas.

A prospective buyer said they had been looking for a long time, comparing new and second-hand homes, and ultimately preferred the better living experience of new homes. After considering developer reputation, supporting facilities, neighborhood environment, and commuting conditions, they finalized their decision.

Besides high-end projects with good value, some low-priced suburban small three-bedroom units also attract buyers. For example, the Chang’an Huaxi Fu Jin’an project in Mentougou has an average sale price of about 44,000 yuan per square meter. According to sales staff, within less than two and a half months of opening, over 200 units have been signed, with 78 and 96 square meter units selling fastest; only a few 78-square-meter units remain.

Industry analysts believe that in Beijing, core districts like Chaoyang and Fengtai, with their comprehensive amenities, prime locations, and quality developments, maintain steady sales. Suburban areas such as Tongzhou, Shunyi, and Changping, known for livability and market-aligned products, are increasingly favored by first-time and improvement buyers, with market activity steadily rising.

Second-Hand Housing Listings Plummet, School District Homes Drive Transactions

Signs of market recovery are more evident in the second-hand housing market.

According to Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, in January and February, second-hand residential transactions exceeded 23,000 units, surpassing the average of about 21,000 units for the same period over the past decade by over 2,000 units, with an average price increase of nearly 2.4%.

Moreover, a second-hand broker from Beike said that the number of second-hand listings in Beijing has dropped from over 200,000 to 140,000 units.

The market is changing. The previous peak in transactions before the Spring Festival cleared many earnest sellers’ listings. After the holiday, owners’ attitudes stabilized, and price negotiations became more limited. Several brokers noted that fewer owners are willing to lower prices now, and the gap between listing prices and transaction prices is narrowing.

“Currently, the listing prices and actual transaction prices are generally close. Slight price reductions are quickly accepted by buyers,” said a Beike broker. When a high-value property is listed with a price 30-50,000 yuan above the transaction price, it often attracts three or four interested buyers simultaneously, who queue up for negotiations. These properties are closely watched by interested buyers who have viewed multiple times; any price flexibility immediately triggers a rush to negotiate, and those who act slowly may miss out. This is the current market situation.

A broker in Mentougou cited an example: a three-bedroom, two-living-room unit at the Jiadian Jindi Huachen community, once the most popular layout, was owned by a city dweller who had left it vacant for sale. The listing price dropped from 6.6 million yuan on November 12, 2025, to 6.3 million yuan on December 24, with few viewings.

The turning point came in February. The broker said that before the Spring Festival, multiple clients scheduled viewings daily, and now the property is in the negotiation stage.

Notably, the school district housing market is also quietly changing. A long-time agent specializing in school district homes in Zhongguancun said that properties with confirmed school admission are more popular and maintain relatively firm prices. Conversely, properties with occupied school seats see lower transaction prices due to reduced demand. For example, a property around 5 million yuan with an available school seat may be priced up to 200,000 yuan higher than one without.

Beike data shows that in key communities within Zhongguancun—such as Taiyangyuan, Zhichunli, Shuangyushu Dongli, and Qingyunbei—about 70 second-hand homes have traded, a slight increase of three units compared to the same period last year.

It’s also worth noting that the market prices for school district homes have stopped declining since September last year. In September, the average price was about 82,800 yuan per square meter, but it gradually fell to 70,600 yuan by December. Since January 2026, prices have begun to rebound.