BTC Market Price Has Already Priced in March CPI Inflation Expectations

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on March 11, U.S. February inflation showed a slight increase, but the market's reaction was relatively calm.

Cryptocurrency analysts believe that although this inflation data largely aligns with market expectations, the upcoming March CPI data may have already been priced in by the market.

February CPI report data shows a general upward trend across various categories. Energy prices rose by 0.6%, food prices increased by 0.4%, and housing costs went up by 0.2%. Even after excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI remains on the rise.

Meanwhile, prices in healthcare, clothing, household goods, airline tickets, and education have all experienced varying degrees of increase, indicating that inflation has a strong foundation and is unlikely to subside quickly in the short term.

Notably, after the data was released, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated some resilience. The Total 3 indicator, which tracks the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH, fell less than 1% from its intraday high of approximately $717.3 billion.

Stephen Coltman, Head of Macroeconomics at 21Shares, stated that the upcoming CPI data will add significant pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for interest rate decisions, making their decision more difficult.

Regarding this challenge, Coltman further questioned whether the Federal Reserve will "turn a blind eye" to temporary shocks or learn from the last inflation cycle by taking preemptive measures and maintaining a hawkish stance. Undoubtedly, this is a key issue the market is eager to resolve.

Strategy researcher Matt Mena believes that although Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $68,000 and $74,000 in the short term, the time to break through the critical resistance level of $75,000 has matured; once successfully broken, the mid-term price could directly enter a new phase between $75,000 and $80,000.

According to historical patterns, after geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin often rebounds strongly by over 15%, reaching around $77,000 to $80,000. If the FOMC restarts rate cuts in 2026, this rebound process could be further "accelerated."

Additionally, data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that only 0.7% of traders expect a rate cut in March, indicating that the market has low expectations for short-term easing monetary policy.

#CPI数据 #Federal Reserve Rate