3.12 Midday Market Update: Black Swan 2.0

[Stock Talk]
Market Overview

Shenzhen was wrong, a delayed decline.

Shanghai retraced

The geopolitical situation isn’t over; 2.0 is coming

Technology fell, commodities rose

But the strength has already started to weaken.

Zero limit-down stocks, 3885 green stocks waiting to rise

This bear market isn’t working either.

Profit-taking sentiment

Strong divergence

Rotating at low levels

Consolidating at high levels

Themes

Commodities

Oil futures are the engine. When this rises, technology and the overall market come under pressure.

But this is more about proactive response.

Today, some stocks jumped during intraday trading, like JinNiu Chemical, which fits the conditions we discussed in the morning.

But how much they can carry depends on tonight’s futures performance.

Chemicals opened with two large orders, indicating a sector-led rebound in chemicals.

During the day, coal and other sectors are considered commodities.

Chemicals have been consistent for two days.

In the morning, funds were reluctant to chase yesterday afternoon’s chemical stocks.

There are disagreements, but they can’t resist the plunge in the overall market and tech, leading to a second wave of fund inflows into chemicals during the session.

Oil is correcting after a decline.

Chemicals are breaking through.

As oil approaches 120, bearish sentiment increases.

Technology

Domestic tech remains insignificant because sentiment is in commodities.

Overseas tech is being bought by institutions.

Domestic tech lacks guiding and consolidating forces like Youzi; only quantitative strategies are in play.

So, it can only follow the market and sector rhythm, cashing out various positions.

Ningbo Construction exceeded expectations in opening bids but stated that the volume didn’t meet the threshold for a transition from weak to strong and didn’t make further statements.

More about preemptive elimination of weak stocks to leave strong ones.

Huasheng Tiancheng opened high and reduced positions.

Fell below the moving average but rebounded without crossing it, so continued to reduce positions.

If it can recover in the afternoon, we’ll see tomorrow.

The 5.10-day moving average is too close; I don’t want to buy back now.

In the morning, the attack was entirely driven by Tuo Wei and Meiliyun’s rebound.

Can’t the funds that are doing Tuo Wei be attracted here? Why must they compete?

Just doing one would be better than forming a clique.

Quantitative stocks can’t form cliques; most of their trades are based on market patterns and sector timing. Only Youzi makes contrarian moves for better recognition.

Yesterday’s chips were used, and sure enough, they entered a correction phase.

Early morning rally was weaker than the sector, but after breaking the 5-day line, support from the sector was strong again.

This is the repetitive T+ in quantitative trading.

During the morning, the green volume was basically free money being thrown out.

These big green bars had buy orders of 50-60 million, then quantitative trading actively pressed down with millions of transactions.

No cancellations of sell orders, and the sell orders were firm.

The largest green volume broke the 5-day line, causing panic.

Then, quantitative traders and retail investors started low buying at the bottom, cutting chips.

But the overall volume was inactive, a garbage time.

In the afternoon, see if it can V-shape back; if not, expect a test of the 10-day line tomorrow.

I don’t want to hold it anymore; if I really believe, I’ll buy back lower tomorrow.

The afternoon is critical; it will determine the direction tomorrow.

The optimistic view is that the market will V-shape in the afternoon.

Funds will then cash out, with commodities taking the lead.

This requires futures to plunge intraday.

If that happens, tech stocks will need to lead the rebound in the afternoon.

Currently, half-day trading is popular; only strong stocks can continue the trend the next day and realize profits.

Morning moves are futile; quantitative rotation is too fast.

Pessimistically, the market will close with a headless bear candle, with futures and commodities remaining strong until the close.

Tomorrow, the market may continue to open low and then rebound.

Still optimistic about tech.

This depends on whether futures plunge tonight or intraday tomorrow.

Subjective view:

Bearish on the overall market, focusing on commodities and future trends, increasingly less bearish on the market.

Moderate stance on electricity; it should be at a peak—key to winning or losing.

Whether power can grow big and strong depends on whether YuNeng Holdings breaks out, whether it’s a correction or the start of a larger upward wave.

Bullish on the overall market and tech stocks.

For domestic vs. overseas computing power, I favor domestic tech.

But if the market resonates with overseas computing power, I will follow objectively.