Bet on "Prediction Markets" and don't be fooled by "experts"

WealthCoffee · 2026-03-12T04:11:50+00:00

With the rapid development of new technologies and frequent wars, society faces uncertainty. Leaders and ordinary citizens alike need to make predictions about the future. In an era of information overload, it becomes especially important to distinguish the authenticity of expert opinions.

WealthCoffee

2026-03-12 04:11:50

Abstract generation in progress

We are entering a turbulent new era: unprecedented rapid technological updates that can quickly bring fundamental changes to all aspects of society, and more frequent outbreaks of war and unrest. Faced with an uncertain future, both leaders and ordinary citizens need to have some foresight. At the same time, amid a flood of information, everyone needs to know how to interpret (or distinguish) the insights of experts (or “so-called ‘experts’”)—whether they are truly knowledgeable or just talking nonsense.

Long ago, we discussed “prediction markets,” but they were just a small, academically focused gambling activity created by the University of Iowa’s Business School in 1988 for entertainment. Although their prediction accuracy was about 74% lower than that of national polls during the 1988-2004 U.S. presidential elections, the scope of topics, investment amounts, and participants was limited.

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