Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US CPI data will be released, setting the tone for global risk assets and BTC!



The CPI data is about to be announced, and the overall market remains cautious. Coupled with ongoing tensions in the Middle East, escalating US-Iran conflicts, and rising energy prices, inflation is likely to stay high and difficult to fall.
From a macro perspective, a significant drop in CPI is unlikely; it is more probable that it will remain relatively strong. If the data exceeds expectations, it will further solidify the market’s expectation of prolonged high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, suppressing risk asset sentiment and increasing volatility in the night trading session.

CPI Quick Facts
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) directly reflects inflation levels, which in turn directly influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut pace. It is a key macro indicator that impacts Bitcoin’s short-term movements.

Key Data This Time:
Previous: 2.4%
Market Expectation: 2.4%

• CPI > 2.4% (above expectations)
Inflation is high, reinforcing expectations of high interest rates, and BTC tends to weaken in a bearish trend.

• CPI = 2.4% (in line with expectations)
Market remains cautious, likely causing BTC to fluctuate sideways initially.

• CPI < 2.4% (below expectations)
Inflation cools down, easing rate cut expectations, and BTC tends to strengthen in a bullish trend.

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