Tonight 20:30, US CPI Sets the Tone for Global Risk Assets and Bitcoin

Tonight at 20:30, the US CPI will be released with significant impact. Currently, market sentiment is cautious, compounded by the ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation and the intensifying US-Iran conflict. Energy prices are under notable upward pressure, making inflation difficult to reduce once it rises. From a macro perspective, the probability of a sharp decline in this CPI is low, and it is likely to remain in a relatively strong range; if the data exceeds expectations, it will further solidify the market’s expectation of prolonged high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, short-term risk asset sentiment will be suppressed again, and volatility in the night trading session will increase.

CPI Core Explanation: CPI, or the US Consumer Price Index, directly reflects inflation levels, and inflation trends directly determine the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. It is a key macro indicator influencing Bitcoin’s short-term movement.
Key data this time: Previous 2.4%, Market forecast 2.4%

• CPI > 2.4% (above expectations): Inflation is high, reinforcing expectations of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, BTC tends to decline

• CPI = 2.4% (in line with expectations): Market remains cautious, BTC is likely to fluctuate first

• CPI < 2.4% (below expectations): Inflation cools down, expectations of rate cuts increase, BTC tends to rise