International oil prices rebound nearly 20% after sharp decline; bullish factions' statements disrupt the market

The epic rollercoaster of the international crude oil market continues. On March 10, U.S. WTI crude oil futures main contract plummeted nearly 20% intraday, breaking below the $80 key level to a low of $77.21 per barrel. The global benchmark Brent crude futures main contract also tumbled below $80 per barrel. By the close of the day, WTI crude futures fell $11.32, closing at $83.45 per barrel, a decline of 11.94%; Brent crude futures dropped $11.16, closing at $87.80 per barrel, down 11.28%.

That day’s oil price movements were highly volatile amid various statements and signals from relevant parties.

U.S. statements were contradictory. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump said at a press conference on the 9th that U.S. military actions against Iran would “end very soon,” but when asked if it might end by the end of this week, Trump replied “no.” However, that same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on social media that “the fight has just begun” and “will not back down.”

Xinhua reported that Iran’s Islamic Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said on the 10th that Iran “will never seek a ceasefire” and must resolutely respond to the “aggressors.” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharib Abadi stated that Iran’s current priority is “decisive defense,” and “the cessation of war is in Iran’s hands.” Vice President Hossain Zadeh also said Iran will continue to defend its territorial integrity as a “legitimate right and duty,” and emphasized that Iran always seeks to resolve crises through dialogue, not attacking neighboring countries.

On the 10th, during trading, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray posted on social media that “the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz,” but deleted the post minutes later.

Oil prices briefly fell by $3.

Misinformation causes a sharp V-shaped rebound in oil prices

Within about ten minutes of Wray’s post, an ETF linked to crude futures lost $84 million in market value. Mizuho Bank commodities expert Robert Yawger called it “an unforgivable mistake.”

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated at a press conference that the U.S. Navy is currently not escorting any oil tankers or ships through the Strait of Hormuz, “of course, it’s an option.”

Iran also “called out” Wray. According to CCTV International, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander Ali Reza Tangsiri reiterated via social media that any vessels related to hostile Iran forces have no right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He said, “If you have doubts about this, try approaching.”

On the 10th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) held a G7 energy ministers’ meeting at its Paris headquarters. IEA Director Fatih Birol said that recent oil market conditions have significantly worsened. Besides the challenges faced by transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, large-scale oil production has also been forced to cut, increasing market risks. Participants discussed various response options, including releasing emergency oil reserves from the IEA. Currently, IEA member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil reserves, with an additional approximately 600 million barrels held by companies at government request.

Birol stated that given the current oil market situation, the IEA has convened a special meeting of member governments to assess current energy supply security and market conditions, and to provide a basis for subsequent decisions on whether to release emergency oil reserves.

According to CCTV, citing three informed sources, U.S. and foreign media reported that the Trump administration has asked Israel to “stop further airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure.”

Additionally, Xinhua News Agency reported that the U.S. Wall Street Journal on the 9th said several advisors have recently privately urged President Trump to find a way to extricate himself from the Iran conflict quickly, fearing that soaring oil prices and prolonged conflict could trigger political backlash.

To lower oil prices, the U.S. has eased some oil-related sanctions. Last week, the U.S. issued a 30-day temporary exemption allowing Russian oil currently stranded at sea to be sold to India.

As of March 11, WTI crude futures are trading at $86.23 per barrel, and Brent crude futures at $87.80 per barrel.

(Source: The Paper)