Two Stories Behind China's High Export Growth

On March 10th, the General Administration of Customs announced that in the first two months of 2026, China’s merchandise trade exports valued at $656.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%; merchandise imports reached $443 billion, up 19.8%.

China’s exports continue to demonstrate strong resilience, achieving an unexpectedly good start. This performance is a short-term pulse resulting from the cyclical recovery of the global manufacturing industry combined with the offset effects of the Spring Festival. It also reflects a deep structural shift in China’s export growth logic in recent years. From a longer-term perspective, the supporting logic behind China’s export resilience is being reshaped by two major new narratives:

First, the diversification of export markets. The share of ASEAN, Latin America, and economies along the Belt and Road Initiative in China’s exports is steadily increasing. The structure of China’s export markets is gradually shifting from being dominated by developed economies to a diversified market approach, significantly enhancing the stability and resilience of the export system against trade frictions, geopolitical shocks, and global demand segmentation.

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