[Red Envelope] Overseas Tech Chain Attracts Capital, Sentiment Divergence Index! 3-11 Pre-market Strategy Analysis

[Taoguba]

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3-11 Wednesday pre-market analysis

The market is warming up externally, and the index rebounded as expected, up 0.65%, closing at 4123 points. Resistance above 4129 is strong, with many trapped positions. Volume did not effectively increase; even if it rises high, it will likely consolidate downward. After an oversold condition, the index weakly rebounded, but volume lagged behind. Flowers are blooming everywhere, celebrating together, with unordered thematic flows. The entire market rose, with red chips exceeding 4500.

Following the same pattern as the last oversold rebound, the opening attack direction is the oversold overseas tech chain—PCB, optical fiber, optical modules, liquid cooling, etc. Yesterday, domestic computing power and AI electricity, resonating with the index, were severely impacted by overseas tech chains, absorbing blood, and did not strengthen, showing healthy divergence. The thematic rotation is unordered: besides overseas tech, there are intra-day rotations in robotics, commercial aerospace, chemicals, etc. The loss effect is concentrated around geopolitical conflicts.

Relay of consecutive boards remains unchanged—not mainstream, with sentiment diverging from the index, showing strong divergence. Besides the industrial chain, Wang Li security, and a straight upgrade to 5 boards. Shun Na shares and Meili Yun hit the limit down. The actual height is 3 boards, Ningbo Construction. Eleven consecutive boards, only two upgraded, both straight boards.

Key thematic analysis and outlook

1. AI electricity, digital collaboration—my personal understanding is that it’s a rebound from the export of electricity, unchanged view. Yesterday, consecutive boards: Shun Na, Jinkai New Energy, Samsung Medical, Shao Neng, Wanze, GCL Energy—all failed. High-level Yunnan Energy Holdings showed obvious stagnation. Export of electricity, capacity stocks: China Western Electric, TBEA, Dongfang Electric, etc., show signs of stagnation. If not for low-positioned Zhongnan Culture and Green Power, which are straight boards, Shun Na and Jinkai New Energy wouldn’t have opened with a straight line. Hard tops and high volume can’t withstand divergence—expected. Pre-market analysis already pre-judged. Divergence expected in export of electricity and digital collaboration.

2. Domestic computing power, bidding mostly as expected. Ningbo Construction’s straight order strengthened. UCloud, Yun Sai Zhi Lian, Meili Yun opened high, with basic red opening. Except for Tuo Wei Information, which underperformed slightly. After opening, severely impacted by overseas tech chains, absorbing blood, healthy divergence. First board: Qu Xing Toys; Yun Sai Zhi Lian opened. 3 into 4, Meili Yun opened. Five stocks hit daily limit, 3 boards: Ningbo Construction. 2 boards: Qu Xing Toys. First boards: Guo An Shares, 263, Kehua Data. The echelon remains complete. Recognition trend: most stocks surged then slightly retreated and consolidated, especially Huasheng Tiancheng, still trending above the 5-day line, closing up 4.33% today, with the upper shadow from yesterday mostly repaired.

Quantitative dominance is normal; funds have little say. Even with thematic resonance index, sentiment and index diverge. Quantitative funds’ abnormal behavior still results in profit-taking. Token export logic remains unchanged. DeepSeek v4 release is still expected. Domestic computing power has expectations gap; after withstanding divergence, there’s a return flow expectation, especially during overseas tech chain divergence.

Ningbo Construction, with about 5 points volume surge expected, opening with a straight line or high open makes it hard to resist divergence. Small red volume surge with a rebound expectation. Whether it can turn into consensus depends on the sector’s return strength. Watch for lagging points; cautious with small-volume quick boards. Focus on volume-driven re-entries.

Meili Yun, provided the sector recovers, has a probability of a rebound. Focus on lagging points; deep water stocks have some support and value.

Rui Si Kang Da, sentiment stock, first board straight, theme includes optical modules, computing switches, intelligent computing centers. Possibly related to optical modules; observe for T-shaped re-entries.

Trend: observe Huasheng Tiancheng, Tuo Wei Information, UCloud, Shun Wang Technology, Hongjing Technology, Capital Online, etc. Suitable for low absorption after divergence, cautious about chasing high.

3. Overseas tech chain, mainly a super-oversold rebound. Too many sub-branches, volume insufficient for sustainability. Suitable for strong divergence low buy; second-day relay after consensus is cautious.

4. Commercial aerospace, mainly individual stocks with local trends. Sector reversal opportunity not yet arrived. Observe Aerospace Development, which has shown continuous five green days, suitable for divergence low buy. Sentiment stocks: Zhong Heng Design.

5. Robotics, personally not optimistic. When will commercial implementation happen? Watch for rotation.

Before volume can effectively expand, thematic rotation will remain normal. During chaotic periods, reasonable position control is especially important. Patience for main lines to emerge.

Tuesday review

1. Meili Yun, bidding plus close, opened with a bottom position, closed with zero axis, and closed again. Yesterday’s intra-day review indicated an opportunity on the board in the afternoon; unfortunately, I was slow and missed the last trade—regret. Subjective judgment error: overseas tech chain opened high at bidding; I thought it would be realized after high open, but it kept rising, severely absorbing blood. Today’s pre-market analysis mentioned some risk. To make up for yesterday’s regret, I still focused on one bid at high open, with the zero axis as a hold, expecting a rebound. Even if it breaks the board, there’s a rebound expectation. Sentiment stocks are high risk, high reward. Tomorrow, depending on sector inflow, there’s a possibility of a rebound.

2. Capital Online, 5-day trend still intact. After opening, it pulled back sharply below the moving average, half closed out. In the afternoon, reduced focus, remaining 1/3. If the sector recovers, consider rolling T+ strategies; choose divergence points to close.

3. Tuo Wei Information, bidding was weaker than expected, closed with a red day in the afternoon. Near the 5-day line, consider re-entry.

4. Yakang Shares, one bid at bidding, logic based on A to B, similar to Xiaomi crayfish concept. Since it’s low, risk is small; will close out tomorrow regardless of strength or weakness.

5. Zhang Yuan Tungsten, low at around the 10-day line, focus on one bid, best with the four major K-line patterns. Arbitrage behavior; for strong trends, the first touch of the 10-day line may provide support.

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