March 10 Review Notes

Today’s index is fluctuating normally, still in a volume-contraction and oscillating pattern, but fortunately there was no pullback in the afternoon. Actually, this morning right after the market opened, I posted a pinned comment to remind everyone to be cautious of a potential surge and fall of the big A shares today. Why did I give this warning this morning? Let me explain the reasons in detail again. First, after about 8 o’clock this morning, everyone saw Brent crude oil, which dropped sharply due to a comment from Huang Mao. Actually, crude oil had already surged and then pulled back last night, but today it continued to accelerate its decline. This indicated a high probability that the big A shares would rise during the trading session. Then, Xiao Ri and Xiao Han Zi opened higher, further confirming that the big A would also turn red today. But why did I warn everyone to be careful of a surge and fall? The surge is obvious, but my main concern is the fall, which is mainly driven by oil. Our Asian markets could surge because crude oil plummeted from $119 to around $90 before the big A opened, a drop of nearly $30, over 30%. Brothers, this is Brent crude oil, not a single stock, but a major commodity. A 30% drop in one day reflects extreme market panic caused by Huang Mao’s comment, leading to a stampede and a sharp emotional sell-off. This indicates a lack of rationality. When a rapid decline occurs, a quick rebound usually follows. I was worried that before our market opened, oil had fallen to $90, but was this rapid drop really caused by the US-Iran negotiations? No, it was just Huang Mao’s bluster. Meanwhile, Xiao Yi directly rejected Huang Mao’s words, calling them nonsense. Whether they negotiate or not is no longer up to Huang Mao. This suggests that the sharp decline in oil caused by Huang Mao’s words might be a misjudgment. The rapid $30 correction in oil was driven by emotional irrationality. Therefore, after our market opens today, crude oil is likely to undergo a V-shaped recovery. If oil quickly pushes back above $100 again, the big A shares are likely to fall back. That’s why I warned everyone today to be cautious of a surge and fall of the big A. [Taoguba]

Fortunately, today crude oil did not rebound sharply; it remained around $90 with oscillations, so the big A did not experience a surge and fall, which is good news. Additionally, looking at the index’s volume, today’s 2.4 billion yuan volume shrank again. Over these days, we see that during high points, the volume released during declines is often higher than during upward lifts from the bottom. This indicates that more funds are fleeing at high levels, while during upward moves, bullish sentiment is suppressed, and market activity is low. This suggests that the market currently lacks strong bullish enthusiasm at the current index level. Recently, volume has been very subdued, which is not typical for a market above 4000 points. I believe it’s not a market that can break new highs in the short term. Overall, I have little hope for the index to break through 4200 points in the short term. If it continues to oscillate without breaking new highs, it will likely retrace. The big A index has been sideways at high levels for two months. Many stocks have already retraced significantly, back to the levels of July 2023. The fact that the big A can stay consistently above 4000 points shows strong market control. But currently, the index is artificially inflated and not reflecting its true position. From January to March, retail investors who made money above 4000 points are very few, because the volatility was huge, external uncertainties were high, and many sectors turned into daily trading routines—ideal for quantitative strategies but very risky for retail investors. One wrong step can wipe out months of gains, which is the likely scenario over these two months. It’s very difficult to operate now because there’s no clear main theme. So, if you’ve lost money recently, don’t blame your skill; it’s the market that’s hard to play. Many stocks can give you 10% in a week but then lose it all in two days, or even more, causing you to lose months’ worth of gains in just a few days. That’s the typical pattern in these two months at over 4000 points. It’s really tough now, with low chances of making money and high chances of losing. Don’t be discouraged or doubt yourself—take it slow.

Regarding the non-ferrous metals sector, today it formed a small doji star without a strong rebound. Last few days, when crude oil surged and gold and silver fell sharply, the non-ferrous metals sector also pulled back quite a bit. Today, silver touched $90 again, but the sector did not show the expected strong rebound. The sector’s rebound was only about 2%, which is normal given that it fell from around 12,139 on March 2 to about 11,000, a drop of roughly 1,100 points. Today, crude oil plunged, but the sector only rebounded slightly, not enough to reflect strong buying. The volume for the sector today hit a three-month low, indicating that at this level, even with crude oil falling sharply, the sector has already pulled back significantly. Funds are scarce at this price level, leading to low volume during rebounds, which I interpret as a sign of weak rebound strength. Therefore, I believe the non-ferrous metals sector will only see a significant upward move when it breaks through 13,000 with volume. In summary, today’s rebound was weak. If prices break below 9,900, everyone should consider reducing or clearing positions due to high risk—this is a key support level from 2007’s record highs. You wouldn’t want to be trapped for 18 years again. If prices stay above 9,900, you can hold, as there might still be rebounds driven by news. Currently, 11,000 is close to 9,900; whether to reduce now or not is up to you, but a break below 9,900 should trigger a sell.

Regarding oil, I believe Huang Mao is eager to quickly end the US-Iran conflict because crude oil is surging. If Xiao Yi continues to control the Strait of Hormuz, over time, oil prices will definitely return above $100. No big surprise there. Rising oil prices would also ruin Huang Mao’s mid-term election prospects and make US rate cuts unlikely this year, disrupting his plans. So, Huang Mao is very eager to negotiate. On the other hand, Xiao Yi prefers to continue fighting, as his new subordinate, Ma Mei, will want to achieve some strong results to win public support. These results will likely be tough on the US, as Ma Mei is a key religious figure among Shia Muslims, with over 200 million followers worldwide. Rumors say they’ve issued a “Holy Fire Order” to pursue Huang Mao—similar to the “Heavenly Sword and Dragon Slaying Saber” story, where they hunted Jin Mao Xie Xun for the Dragon Slayer’s sword. This time, they’re after Trump. Haha, hilarious. The new subordinate of Ma Mei, who just took office, isn’t very influential within the religious community, so he’s likely to make a strong start. I think he won’t negotiate with the US in the short term. Even if Huang Mao approaches him for talks, he probably won’t accept, because doing so would betray the entire Muslim community and compromise his authority. So, I believe within the next month, there’s a high chance he won’t agree to US talks. He’ll probably keep escalating tensions to show his followers strength and achieve his goals. Therefore, I think before April, US-Iran negotiations are unlikely.

Another reason I believe the US and Iran won’t negotiate soon is because of Israel. As the regional hegemon, Israel can only be challenged by Iran, while smaller Middle Eastern countries are mostly under Israel’s influence. Israel has long wanted to weaken Iran’s core forces to solidify its dominance in the Middle East. This conflict with the US and Iran is partly driven by Israel’s encouragement. Israel has been urging Huang Mao to attack, pushing him into a corner. Now, things have escalated, and Huang Mao is confused. He’s like a novice retail investor in the big A market, who made a small short-term bet on Venezuela, won 20%, and got overconfident. He then sold and bought another stock—Xiao Yi—calling it a sure winner, with oil stocks as a bonus. Huang Mao believed his friend Xiao Yi’s advice and heavily bought Xiao Yi’s stock, but the next day, he was caught in a limit-down. He wanted to cut losses, but Xiao Yi kept urging him to hold, so Huang Mao, an elderly man in his 70s, got trapped. Haha. This incident has made Huang Mao hesitant now. As long as Netanyahu exists and incites, Xiao Yi won’t let the US and Iran negotiate peacefully. He’ll keep firing missiles to sabotage. That’s my second reason why US-Iran talks are unlikely in the short term. The third reason is the big goose (the US). Currently, the US is most interested in seeing Iran fight, as oil prices soar, allowing it to profit from selling oil to other countries. The US also secretly supports Xiao Yi, as I mentioned yesterday. So, on the surface, the US might say it promotes US-Iran talks, but behind the scenes, it might tell Ma Mei: “You kill him, I’ll give you weapons.” That’s why I think US-Iran negotiations are unlikely in the short term. The first reason is internal—Xiao Yi’s own stance. The second is external—Xiao Yi’s influence. The third is external—big goose’s support. These three factors lead me to believe that before April, the probability of US and Iran sitting at the negotiation table is very low. I always have my reasons for what I say. I share these insights not just for conclusions but to explain my reasoning in detail. I can’t predict the exact outcome; I can only analyze based on current facts. So, everyone can interpret differently. Take it as a reference. If your views differ, just skip it.

Regarding individual stocks, I want to highlight a few important ones today:

First, Xiamen Tungsten. Core view: I believe it’s now in a tail-end pattern. Why? Because I base my judgment on the May stock price, around 18 yuan, which has now surged to a high of 81 yuan—over 400% increase, quadrupling. Tungsten prices have soared to nearly 1 million yuan per ton—an incredible figure. Over the past ten years, from 2016 to mid-2025, tungsten prices hovered around 150,000 yuan. In just one year, the price jumped from 150,000 to nearly 1 million, a sixfold increase. That’s a rapid rise, faster than a rocket. Any rapid increase usually signals a sharp correction. Although tungsten demand is increasing, I believe current prices have already fully priced in future demand growth. The stock price of related tungsten companies has also risen to this level, already discounting future demand. That’s the first reason. The second reason is recent price behavior: despite tungsten prices still rising sharply in the past two days, the entire tungsten sector’s stocks have started to decline slowly. This divergence suggests that as prices hit new highs, stock prices are starting to fall. It indicates that capital is no longer willing to pay these high prices. Over the past four trading days, Xiamen Tungsten has shown four consecutive downward days at high levels, inconsistent with the rising tungsten prices. This deviation suggests the sector’s risk is now greater than the opportunity. I believe Xiamen Tungsten is now in a tail-end phase. High levels always carry more risk, while low levels are safer. With tungsten approaching 1 million yuan per ton, I think the risk outweighs the opportunity. Such prices have already severely impacted normal industry production. It’s unsustainable, and the government might intervene. So, I reiterate my view: if you still hold Xiamen Tungsten, consider selling if it drops below 68 yuan. Don’t hold on. There might be rebounds during declines, but it’s too high now. I will also remove it from my daily review after today’s analysis. It’s time to graduate from this stock. Wishing Xiamen Tungsten all the best.

Second, Huaxi Nonferrous. Like Xiamen Tungsten, it’s one of the earliest stocks I analyzed in my notes. Huayou, Huaxi, Huaming—these three stocks have made many investors rich. Huaxi was around 18 yuan in June, then surged to 77.77—over 400% gain, similar to Xiamen Tungsten. On March 3, it sharply declined from 77.77 with high volume, a typical top signal in my trading rules. Coupled with the current bearish outlook on the non-ferrous sector, I am now bearish on Huaxi. The futures market shows tin prices maintaining high levels with an M-shaped pattern. The second leg is still forming, with the neckline at 344,900 yuan, now at 392,770 yuan. If you still hold Huaxi, watch the futures. If it breaks below 344,900, it’s time to exit. Like Xiamen Tungsten, this will be my last review of Huaxi. Sometimes, catching a short-term double or quadruple is rare, especially in less than a year. We’ve been fortunate to find two such stocks. Thank you for the encounter. Time to graduate. Huaxi Nonferrous, all the best.

Third, Dong’e Ejiao. A new stock, after removing Xiamen Tungsten and Huaxi, I plan to add two new stocks I previously shared with investors. Today, I include it in my review notes. It’s a classic consumer leader with a deep moat. Its advertising is well-known, and Ejiao is a gift for elders and a supplement, increasingly used by young people. It fits both elderly and young consumer needs. It also aligns with national policies to stimulate consumption. I previously shared this stock in mid-December at around 48 yuan, in a consolidation zone. After rising to 56, it retraced to 52, which I see as a normal correction in an upward oscillation. I think 52 yuan is not high, so I share it today for further analysis. Interested investors can study it carefully before making decisions. Consumer stocks are long-term holdings, especially since the sector has not risen much, and government policies this year aim to boost domestic consumption. I am optimistic about the sector’s performance this year. The main reason is that current prices are low enough for early deployment and long-term holding with lower risk. The current support is around 51 yuan. It’s in a volume-contraction phase, back to the early February levels. I believe the correction is nearly over, and it’s a good time to start building positions gradually. That’s my personal view.

Fourth, Zhuhai Guanyu. Also a new stock I shared earlier. I first shared it at the end of August 2025, around 21 yuan. After some consolidation, it surged to 29 yuan by late October, nearly a 40% increase. Now, it has fallen from 29 to 16 yuan over five months. During this period, I finally saw a large volume decline on the left side, a sign of probable stabilization and reversal. On March 2, it hit a new high volume, then declined for four days until March 5, with decreasing volume, indicating panic selling and retail investor losses. From March 6, it showed three days of small-volume positive candles, halting the decline temporarily. This is a technical signal to start building positions. Fundamentally, Zhuhai Guanyu is among the top three in the electronic battery sector, second only to ATL, which is the leader. The company is actively expanding cooperation with robotics firms. The recent decline from high levels is due to disappointing 2023 earnings, but the stock price has already discounted this. I think now is a good time to gradually rebuild positions. Support is around 15.8 yuan; if it breaks below, sell. The left-side reversal signal is probabilistic, not guaranteed. But with only a small margin to 15.8, a break below should be a clear exit. After selling, wait for a correction and stabilization before re-entering. The current risk is lower than the potential opportunity. But note, this is a Sci-Tech Innovation Board stock, so it’s not accessible to all investors. Haha. Just my personal opinion.

Fifth, Huaming Equipment. One sentence: the current trend is clearly bullish, and the upward trend remains intact. Hold it, and you’re good. If you haven’t entered, don’t ask me now whether to buy. If you ask, it shows you’re afraid of heights—then don’t buy. Those willing to buy are not afraid of high prices. It’s that simple.

Sixth, Muyuan Foods. In the futures market, live pig prices remain low. But don’t worry about Muyuan’s performance; it’s not significantly affected. Large companies hedge with many short positions. Good news: on March 9, futures volume surged massively, signaling a probable bottom and reversal. Even if live pig futures keep falling, it won’t impact Muyuan much because of its hedging. If futures prices stabilize and rise, Muyuan’s stock will likely go up. Recently, on March 6, it showed a clear bottom with increased volume. I mentioned before that recent upward shadows are meant to shake out retail investors. Don’t chase high; instead, buy gradually at lower levels. At this level, Muyuan’s value is quite good. I suggested buying at 44 yuan, which was a good entry point. Now at 48 yuan, it’s only up 10%, not much. The closer to 44, the better to buy in batches. No problem with averaging down.

Seventh, Kedali. Yesterday, it hit 148. Support was at 145. The closer to support, the more to add. No problem. Now at 158, it’s still not expensive. It’s been consolidating with decreasing volume for ten days. Although it didn’t surge today, the current level isn’t high. If it reaches 185, risk outweighs opportunity. But around 150, the opportunity is greater than the risk. Opportunities come from declines; risks come from rises.

Eighth, Innovative Medicine. Today, it continued to rebound. Hold it. It’s back above support. If during trading it dips, consider low buying. When it rises about 1%, you can chase a bit. I have a rule: a 1% rise in funds roughly doubles the stock’s rise. If funds rise 5%, it’s about a 10% increase in stocks, possibly hitting the daily limit. Just a rough reference.

That’s all for now. Market fluctuations are small. Wishing everyone good luck.