[US Stock Market Close] White House: US did not escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz Dow Jones drops 34 points Oil prices sharply narrow their decline

Market attention is focused on the latest developments in the Middle East situation, with oil prices fluctuating and remaining relatively soft, while the Dow turns lower. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media on Tuesday that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, but the post was deleted shortly after. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt stated that the U.S. did not escort any ships.

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded, claiming that the so-called U.S. military escort of the oil tanker is a complete lie, and any actions by the U.S. and its allies will be blocked within Iran’s missile and drone range.

The market hopes for an end to the US-Iran war. NYMEX crude oil closed Tuesday at $83.45, down 11.94%; Brent crude also fell 11.28%, closing at $87.8.

The Dow initially rose 479 points but gave back 34 points to close at 47,706. The S&P 500 fell 0.21%, while the Nasdaq edged up 0.01%, with the China concept stock index, the Golden Dragon Index, rising 1.96%.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Tuesday was the most intense day of military action against Iran so far, with the most fighters and bombers deployed to strike Iran. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine said the U.S. is targeting Iranian missile boats.

Hegseth stated this is a precise, targeted strike, not a prolonged “nation-building” war of attrition.

UAE refineries have suspended operations after drone attacks. On Tuesday, seven countries’ (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US) energy ministers held a meeting to discuss releasing oil reserves. CNBC quoted sources saying the U.S. considers a joint release of 300 to 400 million barrels of oil as appropriate.

Amazon is returning to the bond market. Bloomberg reported that the company’s bond issuance will include up to 11 tranches, ranging from 2 to 50 years. The longest tranche, maturing in 2076, is initially priced about 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields.

The US dollar index fell 0.3%, temporarily at 98.93; U.S. long-term bond yields steadied at 4.159%. Gold rebounded 1.9%, trading at $5,206 per ounce.

In focus stocks, memory stocks continued to rebound. Micron (MU) rose 3.5%, back above $400; SanDisk (SNDK) gained 5%.

Oracle (ORCL) will report earnings after the market close.

JH Hendrickson’s global multi-asset team head Adam Hetts and portfolio manager Oliver Blackbourn said that supply disruptions, rising oil and natural gas prices, and the lack of a clear cooling path are increasing inflation risks and adding to global market volatility. If the conflict persists, economic pressures could deepen; however, U.S. political considerations might quickly frame the situation as a “victory” or rapid end, leaving asset outlooks uncertain.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

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Market trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%; Dow up 101 points; Nasdaq up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 8%

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points; Nasdaq futures up 0.3%; oil prices retreat 7%; Oracle (ORCL) earnings after close

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces dependence on China; India iPhone production now accounts for 25%

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic files lawsuit demanding the U.S. Department of Defense withdraw blacklisting

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says the war will end soon; gold price stabilizes and rebounds

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Dozens of oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues further warnings; Trump at press conference: Iran war will end soon but no timeline promised (updating)

【08:26】【AI + NVIDIA】NVIDIA reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device release to wait for new Siri

$1 below for March 9 US stock market:

Monday: Trump: War nearly over; oil prices plunge; Dow surges 239 points

U.S. President Trump told foreign media that the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force, and only a few missiles left. Their drones are being destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.

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“Look, they have nothing left. In military terms, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump said. The U.S. can do a lot in the Strait of Hormuz and warned Iran that obstructing the waterway will have consequences. “They’ve shot all they can shoot; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be the end of their country… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end, and you will never hear that name again.” Trump also said the strait is currently open, claiming ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That same afternoon, the U.S. Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “We will not hold back.”

Following the comments, oil prices plummeted, and US stocks turned higher. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2; NYMEX crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially fell 886 points, hitting a low of 46,615; the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, to 6,636; the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, to 22,061.

The Dow recovered to close up 239 points at 47,740; the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,795; the Nasdaq gained 1.4% to 22,695.

Brent crude oil initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. The G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to counter the spike in oil prices after the Gulf conflict.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the US-Israel war.

After attending the G7 finance ministers’ online meeting in Brussels, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market if needed, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, Europe and the U.S. have not experienced supply issues.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA urges countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also mentioned that the OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold an energy ministers’ meeting to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under government control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all member countries must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, sufficient to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilizes; the US dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.877; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields decline to 4.107%.

Gold’s decline narrows to 0.6%, at $5,138; silver rises 2.5%, to $86.63.

The U.S. military continues to demonstrate strength. According to BBC, U.S. B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict erupted.

The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” U.S. strategic bomber, a strong sign that large-scale air campaigns are imminent or that existing conflicts may escalate sharply. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting sustained, destructive strikes on infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, U.S. markets are entering daylight saving time, opening one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz out of caution, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank said it will continue to closely monitor the situation. Currently, there is no substantial damage to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. A solution to ensure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains feasible. Given the fog of war, it reaffirms a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

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Market trends:

【18:20】Oil prices surge over 10%, breaking $100; Dow futures down 492 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.1%; oil prices jump over 10%, approaching $120

【12:07】Dow futures down 1,006 points, at 46,511; S&P futures down 130 points, at 6,613; Nasdaq futures down 542 points or 2.2%, at 24,127

【12:07】【Iran Crisis】Iran conflict impacts financial markets; senior strategist Yardeni: probability of a market crash before year-end increases to 35%

【11:15】【Tencent】Reportedly planning to acquire Warner Bros. from Paramount, investing hundreds of millions of dollars

【10:33】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices surge past $100, NYMEX crude up 30%, with major Middle Eastern oil producers cutting output

【10:20】【Iran Crisis】Oil prices spike, dragging down Asia-Pacific stocks; “Black Monday” in Japan and South Korea, both down over 7%; South Korea reportedly considering oil price cap mechanism

【09:56】【Iran Crisis】JPMorgan: Middle Eastern oil capacity expected to decrease by 4 million barrels per day by next weekend

【09:50】【Iran Crisis】Schroders’ Alex Tedder: Oil may reach $100; “I won’t reduce energy stocks in the next two or three years”

【08:17】【Iran Crisis】Gold drops over 2%, testing $5,000; oil prices surge, heightening inflation concerns

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Black Monday begins; oil prices up 20%, approaching $111; Trump: small cost; Dow futures plunge 1,112 points (updating continuously)

【07:30】【Global Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict and U.S. inflation data; U.S. markets open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time

【07:30】Concerns over oil supply disruptions and worse-than-expected U.S. jobs data caused last Friday’s sharp decline in U.S. stocks, with the Dow dropping 945 points to 47,009; the VIX volatility index surged 21.6% to 28.88. The Dow closed down 453 points; the S&P 500 fell 1.33%; the Nasdaq declined 1.59%.

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The US stock market activity last week, details at: 【US Market Close】 Iran fires missiles at “Lincoln”; Brent surpasses $92; weak jobs report causes Dow to fall 453 points; Nasdaq down 1.6%.