Exports to the US and emerging markets are strengthening domestically, the strength of the US dollar determines commodity price directions, and the easing of US-Iran conflicts boosts risk appetite---0310 Macro Summary

SnapshotLaborer · 2026-03-10T20:20:03+00:00

January-February China's import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports up 21.8% year-on-year and imports up 19.8%. The offset of the Spring Festival and improved external demand are the main driving factors. Excessive money supply impacts on gold and commodities prices depend on liquidity, and the strength of the US dollar directly affects the market. The easing of US-Iran conflicts has boosted market risk appetite, and the outlook for the technology growth sector is optimistic. Treasury futures fluctuate due to geopolitical changes, and the central bank maintains liquidity.

SnapshotLaborer

2026-03-10 20:20:03

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In January and February, domestic import and export data both exceeded expectations, with exports up 21.8% year-on-year and imports up 19.8% year-on-year. The sharp rise in exports was mainly driven by the offset of the Spring Festival and improved external demand. Exports to the US rebounded by 13.4 percentage points, while exports to Africa and ASEAN increased by 18.3 and 9.2 percentage points, respectively.
Whether monetary oversupply drives up gold and commodity prices depends on the flow of liquidity. When the US dollar strengthens, liquidity suppresses the financial attributes of commodities; when the dollar weakens, liquidity returns to the real economy, benefiting commodities and gold. In the 1970s and 1980s, funds could only be converted between cash and physical assets, and inflation directly pushed up commodity prices.
Due to the easing of the US-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has significantly improved, and the technology growth sector is expected to continue being the main market theme. Treasury futures fluctuate and diverge mainly due to corrections after excessive selling the previous day and easing geopolitical tensions. The central bank injected 5.2 billion yuan net to maintain ample liquidity.

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