The global sugar market faces persistent oversupply clouds

Recently, several international authoritative analysis institutions have released reports intensively, all pointing to the same conclusion— the global refined sugar market will continue to face oversupply in the next two crushing seasons. Analysts from the internationally renowned sugar trading company Czarnikow stated last Wednesday that the global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 8.3 million tons. Although the surplus will narrow in the 2026/27 season, it will still remain at 3.4 million tons. A forecast released by the commodities consulting firm Green Pool on January 29 shows a global sugar surplus of 2.74 million tons in the 2025/26 season and 156,000 tons in the 2026/27 season. Under the combined effects of Brazil’s record-high production, India’s significant increase in output and export liberalization, and steady growth in Thailand, the fundamental supply surplus in the global sugar market is unlikely to change in the short term, and sugar prices will still face downward pressure. However, expectations of reduced production in Brazil for the 2026/27 season, the suppressive effect of low sugar prices on global production willingness, and the technical rebound risk implied by record-breaking short positions held by funds all add uncertainty to the long-term market outlook. (Yunnan Sugar Network)