GF Futures: Middle East geopolitical conflict escalation, Methanol 2605 contract hits the daily limit

Today, the Methanol 2605 futures contract hit the daily limit, and market bullish sentiment has fully warmed up. The core logic lies in the sudden escalation of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts, triggering global methanol supply chain concerns, combined with the collective rise in energy prices pushing up costs. Under the resonance of multiple bullish factors, methanol futures prices have experienced a strong rally. In the short term, supply chain concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts and the cost support from energy prices are unlikely to reverse quickly, and the Methanol 2605 futures price may remain in a strong oscillation; in the medium to long term, if the Middle Eastern situation gradually eases and Iran’s facilities resume production smoothly, the import supply gap will gradually be filled. Coupled with the release of domestic new capacity, the upward pressure on methanol prices may ease. However, caution is needed regarding further escalation of geopolitical conflicts, unexpected maintenance of domestic facilities leading to supply contraction, and sustained increases in energy prices, which could further boost prices. At the same time, the weak demand for olefins may constrain the upward space for prices. (GF Futures)