The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March at 95.3% before the non-farm payrolls announcement

2026-03-06 15:04:57

Odaily Planet Daily News: Before the release of non-farm payroll data, according to CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 4.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95.3%. The probability of a total 25 basis point cut by April is 14%, with an 85.5% chance of no change, and a 0.5% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point cut is 31.5%.

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