International oil prices surge, with Brent crude oil futures briefly surpassing $82 per barrel.

Reporter Xiang Yantao

Affected by geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices surged sharply on March 2. On that day, Brent crude futures briefly broke through $82 per barrel, up more than 13% from the previous trading day; WTI crude futures briefly exceeded $75 per barrel, up over 10% from the previous day.

The A-share oil and gas sector also experienced a strong rally. By the close on March 2, the Tonghuashun oil and gas exploration and services sector surged 12.23%, and the petroleum processing trade sector rose 5.33%. At the same time, China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, the three “giants,” all hit their daily limit for the first time in history. Among them, China National Petroleum’s stock price reached an 11-year high, China National Offshore Oil’s stock hit a new high since its 2022 listing, and China Petrochemical’s stock reached its highest since October 2024.

Han Zhengji, an oil analyst at Jlianchuang, told Securities Daily that the overall crude oil market remains in a supply surplus, with inventories relatively ample. From a fundamental perspective, short-term geopolitical conflicts have limited actual impact on the global supply and demand pattern. At the recent OPEC+ meeting, eight major oil-producing countries decided to increase daily output by 206,000 barrels in April. The increase exceeded expectations, reflecting the major producers’ ability and willingness to make up for supply shortages.

Regarding the future trend of oil prices, Han Zhengji believes that in the short term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile with an upward trend. Breaking through $80 per barrel for Brent crude is unlikely to be a surprise. If geopolitical conflicts persist for a longer period, oil prices could further rise and break through $100 per barrel. Conversely, if signs of easing in geopolitical tensions emerge, prices may fall back. Ignoring geopolitical risks and based solely on fundamentals, the reasonable price range for Brent crude could be between $65 and $75 per barrel.

The sharp fluctuations in oil prices have quickly transmitted to capital markets and downstream chemical industries.

Wang Qiangfeng, Chief Analyst of the Chemical Industry at Hu’an Securities Research Institute, told Securities Daily that the surge in the stocks of the “Three Big Oil Companies” is the result of multiple factors. First, the geopolitical conflict risk has significantly increased risk appetite in the oil and gas sector, strengthening market expectations of rising oil prices. Second, the commodities market is experiencing systemic changes due to supply chain restructuring. Notably, over the past year, oil prices have remained relatively low, and the secondary market has not fully priced in geopolitical risk premiums for crude oil. Since the beginning of this year, major powers’ strategic positioning and competition for crude oil resources and pricing power have intensified, prompting increased capital reallocation to oil and gas assets.

Looking ahead, Wang Qiangfeng believes that the energy and chemical industry is in a phase of cyclical recovery. On one hand, continuous production increases in the crude oil market reflect improved upstream conditions; on the other hand, domestic policies against “involution” since last year have been steadily advancing, optimizing the supply structure of the chemical industry and showing clear signs of recovery. Specific measures such as industry-wide coordinated price increases, differentiated pricing, energy consumption controls, restrictions on new capacity, and the exit of outdated capacity are being implemented to improve supply-side conditions. Additionally, the ongoing exit of some foreign capacities has also created market space for domestic chemical companies.

(Edited by: Wen Jing)

Keywords: Oil Price