The betting probability on Polymarket for Mojtaba Khamenei becoming Iran's next leader has fallen below 50%

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-06T13:13:48+00:00

Polymarket's betting on Iran's next Supreme Leader has shifted, with Mojeetaba Khamenei's chances falling below 50% for the first time. Previously, Ali Khamenei's son had over an 80% chance, now down to 49%, while Ali Reza Alavi's chances are at 15%.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-06 13:13:48

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Investing.com – The betting on Iran’s next Supreme Leader on Polymarket has shifted, with Mojetaba Khamenei’s chances of holding the position dropping below 50% for the first time since Tuesday.

The previous prediction market had estimated over an 80% chance that the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son would assume the role. By Friday morning, this probability had fallen to 49%.

According to Polymarket users’ predictions, Ali Reza Alavi — a cleric and current member of Iran’s three-person management team — now has a 15% chance of holding the position.

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