BTC 15-minute increase of 0.77%: ETF net inflow and institutional rebalancing jointly drive short-term rally

From 07:45 to 08:00 (UTC) on March 4, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) 15-minute candlestick price range was between 68,885.0 and 69,655.7 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.12% and a return of +0.77%. The short-term rally attracted market attention, with trading volume increasing simultaneously and overall volatility significantly rising.

The main driver of this movement was the net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in early March, with institutional investors reallocating assets at the beginning of the year, driving funds back into the BTC market. Additionally, on-chain monitoring showed frequent large structural BTC transfers, mainly from institutional wallets to custodial addresses, indicating an increase in non-speculative rebalancing intentions, easing short-term selling pressure, and strengthening upward momentum.

Furthermore, the derivatives market also contributed to the acceleration of volatility. The BTC options market exhibited concentrated Gamma risk, with traders tending to buy call options to hedge risks, further boosting volatility. Open interest in futures has rebounded since February, with funds actively flowing into leveraged products, amplifying price fluctuations. On a macro level, influenced by the Iran situation, safe-haven funds flowed orderly into BTC, coupled with positive expectations for crypto policies boosting institutional risk appetite, jointly amplifying this rebound. Technically, BTC broke through consolidation zones and surpassed the 21-day moving average, with short-term funds pushing prices upward.

It is noteworthy that the current market is in a high-volatility phase. ETF net flows and large on-chain transfers have key impacts on the trend, and changes in Gamma exposure and open interest in options markets also require close attention. Additionally, macroeconomic and policy uncertainties increase the risk of short-term corrections. Investors are advised to closely monitor market liquidity, key support levels, and on-chain fund movements, and stay updated with real-time market information.