Nanhua Futures: The long-term bullish fundamentals for platinum and palladium still exist

In the medium to long term, the foundation for a bull market in platinum and palladium still exists. In the first half of 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain an accommodative stance, and central bank gold purchases, risk aversion, and investment demand will continue to push up the price center of precious metals. Although the nomination of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair has raised market concerns (shrinking balance sheets could boost dollar credit and weaken the support logic for precious metals), the actual impact is limited: first, AI has not yet achieved disruptive breakthroughs, and the US does not have the conditions to replicate the “Volcker Moment”; second, Trump’s midterm election efforts to lower long-term interest rates conflict with shrinking balance sheets that push up term premiums and drive long-term rates higher. The Fed expanded its balance sheet in December last year, and liquidity has marginally improved, but narrow reserve levels remain low, and dollar liquidity is still tight compared to the pandemic period. A trend of liquidity expansion is highly probable. Operationally, it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. (Nanhua Futures)