Internal leak! Wall Street veteran reveals with 20 years of data: Why do you always want to "buy the dip" but keep getting trapped? The secret cost basis for dollar-cost averaging $BTC exposed

Over the past five months, the price of $BTC has retraced about half from its high. During times like these, there are always two voices in the market: one shouting “buy the dip,” and the other yelling “escape.” But twenty years of Wall Street experience tells me that emotions are the enemy of profits; data is the only true friend. There is a strategy that doesn’t guess the top or the bottom but often ends up smiling last. It’s called dollar-cost averaging, or DCA, which is what we often refer to as fixed investment.

Let’s first look at some backtest data. Suppose starting in January 2021, you invest a fixed $250 weekly to buy $BTC. Over five years, your total investment would be $67,500. Through this mechanical approach, you would have accumulated about 1.651 BTC, with an average cost around $40,884.

At the current price of approximately $71,000, this position is worth about $120,500, with a net profit of $53,000 and a return of about 76%. If $BTC reaches $100,000, the position’s value would rise to $165,000. Based on past cycle highs, if in October 2025 the price hits about $126,000, this asset could be worth nearly $208,000.

Of course, you might say this cycle started early. Let’s look at a more recent example. Starting the same weekly DCA plan in January 2024, with a total investment of $28,500 so far, the average purchase cost has risen to $77,312, and you’ve accumulated about 0.3686 BTC. At the current price, this investment is roughly at a 6% unrealized loss.

But the key point is, when $BTC hits $100,000, the position’s value will be $36,863; if it surges to the cycle high of $126,000, it will be worth $46,448. Short-term losses are insignificant compared to the long-term trend.

In February this year, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livinston made a comparison on social platform X. Over the past five years, investing $100 weekly in $BTC resulted in $42,508; the same amount invested in the S&P 500 yielded $37,470. The return for $BTC was 62.9%, while the S&P 500 was 43.6%.

His conclusion is clear: despite the volatility of $BTC, historical data shows that sticking to DCA during market downturns yields better long-term returns. The math behind this is simple: at lower prices, a fixed amount buys more shares, lowering the overall average cost.

Backtesting data is a “rearview mirror,” while forward-looking models are a “navigation system.” Studies have tested the effects of dollar-cost averaging starting from January 2026 over about four years. This forecast is based on $BTC’s long-term power-law growth curve, a model tracking price versus time on a logarithmic scale, which aligns well with historical cycles.

According to this model, by 2028, the long-term support level could break above $100,000. Based on this, Bitcoin Well’s simulations project that by March 2030, the median price of $BTC could be around $430,000. The model also considers upper and lower bounds, giving lower (about $274,000) and higher (around $900,000) scenario estimates.

Over these four years, investing $250 weekly, totaling about $52,500, could accumulate roughly 0.30 BTC. Under different price scenarios: at $274,000, the position would be worth about $82,200; at the median of $430,000, about $129,000; and at $900,000, nearly $270,000.

Another study by researcher Sminston With last November tested how timing entry affects long-term results. Simulations showed that even if you buy 20% above the current market price and sell 20% below the predicted median price in 2035, after ten years, you could still see nearly 300% returns. The final assets would be about 7.7 times the initial investment.

The conclusion of this study may serve as the gentlest reminder to all attempting to “time the market”: the timing of entry mainly affects your “height” of gains; but the length of holding truly determines the “depth” of your profits. In the high-volatility asset class of $BTC, using DCA to counteract fluctuations and time to smooth out cycles might be the most rational and most executable strategy for ordinary investors.