Interpreting the Work Report: These Important Consensus Points Among Ten Chief Economists

As a key policy blueprint marking the start of the “14th Five-Year Plan” year, the government work report has attracted significant attention from the capital markets. Which statements are particularly important? What signals do they send? Ten chief economists have provided their latest interpretations.

Cailian News Agency interviewed and summarized the viewpoints of Huang Wentao from CITIC Securities, Yi Huan from Huatai Securities, Guo Lei from GF Securities, Sun Binbin from Caitong Securities, Zhang Jun from Galaxy Securities, Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities, Zhao Wei from Shenyin Wanguo Securities, Huang Fusheng from China Post Securities, Xiong Yuan from Guosheng Securities, and Song Xuetao from Guojin Securities. They agree that the economic growth target of 4.5%-5% is reasonable, reflecting a balance between stabilizing growth now and pursuing long-term transformation. Fiscal and monetary policies will work together, with technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and green transformation as the three main focus areas. The long-term positive outlook for RMB assets and capital markets is clear.

It is important to note that the next 1-2 months will be a policy observation window period, with five key focus areas:

1. Policy signals from the NPC and CPPCC during the two sessions, including speeches by the General Secretary, various press conferences, and the “Minister Channel”;
2. Release of core data such as social financing and macroeconomic indicators for January-February;
3. Implementation and promotion of the two sessions’ spirit by ministries and local governments;
4. The pace of policy implementation at the local level;
5. The official release of the full “14th Five-Year Plan” outline.

Viewpoint 1: How to interpret the downward revision of GDP growth targets?

Overall, chief economists agree that lowering the 2026 GDP growth target from “around 5%” to “4.5%-5%” is reasonable. They believe this adjustment aligns with economic transformation realities and leaves room for structural adjustments and risk prevention.

Huang Wentao from CITIC Securities notes that compared to the “around 5%” growth target in recent years, the 2026 statement is more pragmatic and steady, echoing the overall tone of “seeking progress while maintaining stability.” It emphasizes interval management and striving for better results, balancing growth orientation with a shift in policy focus toward structural optimization and risk mitigation. Essentially, China is actively adjusting during its transition from traditional factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth and total factor productivity enhancement.

Guo Lei from GF Securities also emphasizes that as the first year of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the target adjustment signals a greater emphasis on growth quality, consistent with the implied growth rate in the long-term vision. Zhang Jun from Galaxy Securities believes that flexible interval arrangements can help ease the supply-demand imbalance, supporting low price levels and demand recovery.

Regarding inflation targets, all parties agree that the CPI target remains around 2%, with policies explicitly aiming to turn the overall price level from negative to positive. Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities mentions that the implied nominal GDP growth rate embedded in the deficit ratio is about 5.04%, showing a slight rebound from last year’s expectations and promising a nominal growth recovery. Yi Huan from Huatai Securities states that nominal growth rebound is a key highlight of this year’s economic goals, supporting corporate profit improvement.

Viewpoint 2: What are the policy priorities for fiscal and monetary policies?

Chief economists generally agree that fiscal policy will continue to be proactive, and monetary policy will remain moderately easing, with clear coordination between the two. However, there are slight differences in the emphasis and intensity.

On fiscal policy, consensus centers on “steady growth in aggregate, continuous structural optimization.” Huang Wentao from CITIC Securities explains that the deficit ratio remains at 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. General public budget expenditure has exceeded 30 trillion yuan for the first time, with high levels of long-term special bonds and special debt.

Differences mainly lie in the interpretation of the broad deficit ratio. Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities notes that the broad deficit ratio has decreased from about 9.0% in 2025 to 8.5%, indicating a slowdown in debt expansion. Yi Huan from Huatai Securities emphasizes that after excluding debt refinancing, the net fiscal financing scale for expenditures increased by 230 billion yuan year-on-year, still providing marginal support for overall demand. Sun Binbin from Caitong Securities adds that beyond 1.3 trillion yuan in special national bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, an additional 300 billion yuan is allocated for bank capital replenishment and 800 billion yuan for new policy financial instruments, reflecting clear structural optimization.

On monetary policy, the consensus is on “moderate easing with emphasis on coordination.” Zhang Jun from Galaxy Securities mentions that policies will flexibly and efficiently use reserve ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with an expected 50 basis point RRR cut in March and possibly one 10-20 basis point interest rate cut later this year. Song Xuetao from Guojin Securities believes there is room for further RRR and interest rate cuts, but the magnitude may be moderate, with expectations of 1-2 RRR cuts and a 10 basis point rate cut within the year. Regarding timing, the urgency for RRR cuts is limited in the short term, and there is room for debate over the timing of rate cuts. Xiong Yuan from Guosheng Securities notes that under constraints like narrowing monetary policy space and bank interest margins, the central bank will be more cautious with overall easing, prioritizing fundamentals and structural easing.

Yi Huan from Huatai Securities emphasizes that the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is strengthening, exemplified by the establishment of 100 billion yuan in fiscal-financial synergy funds to boost domestic demand.

Viewpoint 3: What is the long-term investment mainline?

Technology innovation and industrial upgrading are widely recognized as the long-term investment themes. All parties agree that policies are comprehensive and in-depth in supporting emerging and future industries, which will bring long-term dividends.

Focus on emerging and future industries. Sun Binbin from Caitong Securities points out that policies clearly emphasize developing integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and low-altitude economy, as well as future energy, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G, aligning with the development of new productive forces.

Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities mentions that the scope of new kinetic energy industries has expanded further, adding fields like integrated circuits, future energy, and brain-computer interfaces compared to 2025. The scope of international science and technology innovation centers has expanded to include Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta. Huang Fusheng from China Post Securities believes that “AI+” is moving from technological breakthroughs to industry empowerment, with domestic computing power and vertical AI applications becoming core focuses.

Traditional industry upgrading is also prioritized. Zhao Wei from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities states that “optimizing and upgrading traditional industries” is placed at the forefront of modern industrial systems, with intelligent and green transformations strengthening global competitiveness. Zhang Jun from Galaxy Securities mentions a new round of high-quality development initiatives for key industrial chains, aiming to improve quality, reduce costs, and cut emissions in traditional industries, and cultivating modern construction industry chains.

Regarding policy implementation effects, Huang Wentao from CITIC Securities is optimistic, expecting annual growth of over 7% in R&D investment during the “14th Five-Year Plan,” with the added value of core digital economy industries increasing to 12.5%, providing sustained momentum for industrial upgrading.

Viewpoint 4: What are the highlights of capital market reform?

In the capital market, chief economists believe relevant policy adjustments will bring long-term structural opportunities.

Reform focus on “balanced investment and financing, nurturing patient capital.” Huang Fusheng from China Post Securities states this signifies a profound logical shift in the capital market, from a single financing function to a new ecosystem of coordinated investment and financing, serving as an important implementation of national development strategies in finance. The capital market will no longer just be a channel for corporate financing but will also generate a virtuous cycle of “fund inflow—asset appreciation—reinvestment” through sustained returns.

Huang Wentao from CITIC Securities notes that increasing the proportion of direct financing will facilitate the funding chain for startups and provide more ample financing support for “specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative” enterprises. Sun Binbin from Caitong Securities believes that reforms will stabilize market confidence and expectations, supporting a steady and positive outlook for RMB assets, including stocks, bonds, and forex.

Viewpoint 5: How to expand and boost domestic demand and consumption?

Expanding domestic demand remains a strategic focus, with policy innovations in consumption and investment highly anticipated. All parties are optimistic about policy effects.

On consumption, there is broad recognition of shifting from direct subsidies to mechanism optimization. Guo Lei from GF Securities mentions policies include increasing income for low-income groups, promoting spring and autumn holidays, releasing health and wellness consumption, and optimizing inbound tourism, forming a combined effect.

Huang Fusheng from China Post Securities notes that under an aging population, policies support elderly finance and silver economy, with key directions including rehabilitation medical services, age-friendly renovations, and smart elderly care. Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities shows that by 2025, per capita service consumption growth will surpass that of goods, and policy support for service consumption aligns with consumption evolution laws. Sun Binbin from Caitong Securities emphasizes that housing policies for newly married and newly parent families can encourage marriage and childbirth, reduce living costs, promote consumption, and help reduce real estate inventory, achieving multiple benefits.

In terms of expanding domestic demand, Song Xuetao from Guojin Securities believes the focus is on “both long-term and short-term.” The report explicitly states the need to “stimulate residents’ intrinsic consumption motivation and implement policies to promote consumption.” Long-term goals include solving the persistent income growth issue for urban and rural residents through measures like income-increasing plans, boosting low-income groups’ income, increasing residents’ property income, and improving salary and social security systems.

In investment, consensus centers on “infrastructure as a foundation, new areas as growth points.” Several chief economists note that the 800 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, will effectively leverage social capital. Guo Lei from GF Securities states that the central budget investment of 755 billion yuan and the 800 billion yuan in ultra-long special bonds for “dual construction” will support investment stabilization. Special bonds will favor regions with sufficient project preparation, helping to stabilize investment.

Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities estimates that about 9.75 trillion yuan will be allocated for investment this year, a 1.2% increase, with infrastructure expected to recover modestly. Zhao Wei from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities adds that investment will focus on new productive forces and new urbanization, with major projects and private investment both active, optimizing investment structure.

Viewpoint 6: How to precisely improve people’s livelihoods?

Beyond core economic policies, chief economists pay special attention to risk prevention, regional development, and social security policies, believing these measures will underpin high-quality economic development.

On risk prevention, real estate and local government debt are key concerns. Xiong Yuan from Guosheng Securities states that this year will focus more on stabilizing the real estate market, mainly through destocking and supply structure optimization. Zhao Wei from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities mentions that policies now include “exploring multiple channels to activate stockpiled commercial housing,” with the short-term goal of destocking and stabilizing housing prices.

Regarding local government debt, Zhao Wei emphasizes efforts to curb illegal new implicit debt and optimize debt monitoring and assessment indicators, including bringing financing platform operational debt into risk resolution scope. Sun Binbin from Caitong Securities notes that reducing and improving the quality of small and medium financial institutions’ assets is a key risk prevention measure, involving optimizing layout, enhancing governance, and improving risk disposal mechanisms to safeguard financial security.

Regional development highlights the Yangtze River middle reaches urban agglomeration. Guo Lei from GF Securities explains that beyond traditional city clusters like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, policies explicitly promote the accelerated development of the Yangtze River middle reaches, with Wuhan metropolitan area as a core, becoming a regional development focus during the “14th Five-Year Plan.” Zhao Wei from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities adds that regional policies also include promoting people-centered new urbanization, strengthening bay area planning, and implementing targeted assistance to enhance regional coordination.

On social security, improvements in elderly and medical subsidies are widely recognized. Zhang Yu from Huachuang Securities mentions that the minimum monthly standard for urban and rural residents’ basic pensions will increase by 20 yuan, and the per capita fiscal subsidy for residents’ medical insurance will increase by 24 yuan, with continuous increases boosting residents’ confidence in consumption. Huang Wentao from CITIC Securities states that the “14th Five-Year Plan” further raises social security goals, with indicators like average years of education for the working-age population and beds in elderly care institutions showing improvement over the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.

(Article source: Cailian News Agency)