Economist: Tonight, in addition to the non-farm payroll data, also pay attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual population adjustment.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release new population control data delayed last year due to the 43-day government shutdown. Jefferies’ Chief U.S. Economist, Aneta Markowska, stated that the latest data from the Census Bureau shows that the BLS has been overestimating population growth since the end of 2024. It is expected that, in the adjusted January data, the population aged 16 and above will be revised downward by about 590,000, the labor force will be revised downward by about 370,000, and employment figures from household surveys will also be similarly adjusted. Using a smoothed experimental series of past population control and immigration data, combined with the latest census data, it is projected that U.S. labor force growth in 2025 will be only 900,000, and overall labor force growth in 2026 will be far below 500,000. Population control adjustments will only affect January’s household survey data. This means that month-over-month comparisons of household employment, unemployment, and labor force indicators will not be directly comparable. Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer noted that the good news is that key ratios (unemployment rate and labor force participation rate) are usually minimally affected. Last year, population control adjustments increased both ratios by 0.1 percentage points, but this year, the risk is that new control adjustments could cause these ratios to slightly decline. (Jin10)