First Capital Futures: Crude oil price disturbance, palm oil continues to rebound

Today, the domestic palm oil market continued to rebound, following the price trend in Southeast Asian producing regions. Over the weekend, conflicts erupted in the Middle East, the US, Israel, and Iran, raising concerns about supply restrictions and causing international crude oil prices to surge by 8%, which also boosted international oilseed prices. Today, the US soybean oil electronic trading rose over 2%, while the Malaysian May contract increased by 1.6%. Fundamentally, the market remains lackluster. Shipping agencies reported that Malaysia’s February palm oil exports fell by 21.5-25.5% month-on-month. Weak demand after Ramadan in India continues to suppress the market. However, Indonesia began increasing export-specific taxes to 12.5% in March and raised the export benchmark price to $938.87 per ton, together adding about $30 per ton to March palm oil costs, improving Malaysia’s palm oil competitiveness. Meanwhile, with US soybean oil continuing to rise and Argentine soybean oil strengthening after the holiday, the downward pressure on international palm oil prices has eased. Overall, geopolitical issues in the Middle East are still unfolding, and fluctuations in international crude oil prices continue to impact oilseeds. Therefore, it is recommended to hold long positions accumulated earlier but avoid excessive chasing of highs, and remain alert to the risk of price pullbacks. (First Capital Futures)