Observing the Middle Eastern Conflicts: China's "Resource Self-Sufficiency" in the Second Half

1. Green Debt Restructuring and Circular Economy: A New Path for China’s Resource Security

The Iran-U.S. war has caused repeated turbulence in the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices, and shipping disruptions have intensified global geopolitical risks, directly increasing transportation costs for energy and minerals. This has strengthened expectations of supply instability, and uncertainties in strategic mineral supply chains are rising.

For China, this uncertainty is not only reflected in energy security but also extends to key minerals in the new energy and military industries, such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. In fact, external risks to resource security, like rare metals, are not limited to the Middle East. On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports. Public data shows that in 2025, about 19% of China’s lithium concentrate imports came from Zimbabwe. This ban will inevitably have a significant impact on China’s lithium concentrate import structure. Meanwhile, China’s upstream resource dependence in the new energy industry chain remains high: industry data indicates that lithium raw material dependence is about 58%, while cobalt dependence is as high as 98%, mainly relying on supplies from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This means that any fluctuations in international situations or policies of exporting countries could directly impact the stability of the industry chain. Against this backdrop, more efficient development and utilization of “urban mines” rich in strategic resource value—extracting key metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and gold from waste batteries and electronic products—should become an important part of China’s resource strategy.

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