Middle East Conflict Drives European Gas Prices Higher

RunWithRugs · 2026-03-04T00:33:53+00:00

Natural gas prices in Europe surged 50% due to Middle East tensions and halted production in Qatar. Concerns over supply disruptions raise fears of a 78 million ton shortfall, while potential new LNG production may ease the imbalance.

RunWithRugs

2026-03-04 00:33:53

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(MENAFN) Natural gas prices in Europe surged over the past day, with benchmark Dutch TTF contracts climbing by roughly 50%, as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened fears over supply disruptions. Concerns intensified following reports that production had been halted at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility and as transit risks mounted in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to industry analysis, Qatar exported 81 million tons of liquefied natural gas in 2025, while the United Arab Emirates contributed an additional 5 million tons. Kuwait, in contrast, imported 8 million tons. As a result of the recent developments, the global market is effectively facing a shortfall of 78 million tons.

Tom Marzec-Manser, director of Europe Gas & LNG at Wood Mackenzie, said the price spike is expected to reduce demand in parts of South Asia, while weak LNG consumption in China could help stabilize the market.

“Added to that, Wood Mackenzie expects 35 million tonnes of new LNG production in 2026, and this too will help cover the current supply-demand imbalance,” Marzec-Manser said and added, “But it’s fair to assume that the longer the Straits of Hormuz remains shut, the higher the gas prices will go.”

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