[Red Envelope] March 4 Pre-Market Strategy: Will the oil sector continue to follow the Pingtan closure expectation? Fans, get rich!

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Personal investment thoughts yesterday:

1. The opening of Pingtan Development and Straits Innovation was again a low start followed by a decline, same as a few days ago. I increased my attention at low levels accordingly. Around 10 o’clock, Pingtan Development and Straits Innovation saw major buying and surged sharply. I sold all my existing positions. The strategy was correct. The closing stocks couldn’t withstand the pressure and further retreated, but in terms of candlestick patterns, they look like “Immortal Guide,” needing future validation. Those who understood and acted yesterday probably received a wave of red envelope gains.
2. The agricultural sector performed well yesterday morning, with Shennong Seed Industry and Quanyin High-Tech showing strong gains. I focused on Quanyin High-Tech, which opened slightly lower and quickly rose. After a restructuring expectation, it retraced significantly, creating a large golden pit. The trend has now formed a bottom reversal.
3. Guangfei Optoelectronics rose against the trend, with obvious signs of major players entering recently. I chose to watch at low levels yesterday. Its performance followed the market’s rise and fall.
4. Shaoyang Hydraulic opened lower, and I didn’t cancel attention immediately. Only after continued decline did I sell. The strategy was correct, as the decline further expanded. Mankalong opened lower yesterday, then rebounded, and I sold. The golden market probably has peaked.

Review of yesterday (March 3):
I. Market and sentiment overview

• Index: Shanghai Composite -1.43% (4122.68), Shenzhen -3.07%, ChiNext -2.57%, STAR Market -5.21%; opened high and fell sharply with increased volume.
• Volume: 3.16 trillion yuan (up 111.8 billion), breaking 3 trillion for two consecutive days.
• Gainers: 643, Losers: 4,807; Limit-ups: 85, Limit-downs: 82.
• Sentiment: Extremely cold; board-breaking rate about 35%; consecutive limit-up upgrade rate about 23.7%.
• Core logic: Geopolitical conflicts → crude oil prices rise → funds flock to oil & gas/shipping for risk aversion; tech/growth sectors heavily hit.

II. Limit-up echelon (short-term core)

1. Highest space (consecutive boards):

• 3 consecutive boards (6 stocks): Yasheng Group (Agriculture), Huashengchang (Instruments), Shui Fa Gas (Natural Gas), Heshun Petroleum, Taijia Shares, Changyuan Donggu.

2. 2 consecutive boards (~28 stocks):

• The “Three Big Oil” companies (PetroChina, CNOOC, Sinopec) all with 2 boards; also COSL, China Merchants South Oil, CNOOC Services, CNOOC Engineering, Petrochemical Oil Services, CNOOC Development, Shanghai Petrochemical, Guanghui Energy, etc.
• Trend high-flyers: COSCO Shipping (8 days, 5 boards, total oil transport leader), Intercontinental Oil & Gas (6 days, 4 boards, oil & gas elasticity).

3. First boards (~47 stocks):

• Main line (oil & gas/oil services): CNPC Engineering, Zhongman Petroleum, Zhunyou Shares, Shandong Molong, Huibo Pump, Tongyuan Petroleum, Deshi Shares, Renzhi Shares, etc.
• Secondary line (shipping/oil transport): COSCO Shipping Development, Jinjiang Shipping, Ningbo Marine, Nanjing Port, etc.
• Others: Gas, coal, chemicals, gold for defensive sectors.

III. Main line and leaders (short-term focus)

• Absolute main line: Oil & gas/energy (over 50% limit-up rate).

• Drivers: Strait of Hormuz blockade expectations → crude oil surge → high dividend + performance elasticity.

• Core leaders:

  • Central army: PetroChina (2 boards, 2.4 trillion), CNOOC, Sinopec (all three with boards).
  • Elasticity: Intercontinental Oil & Gas (6 days, 4 boards), Shui Fa Gas (3 boards), Zhunyou Shares, CNOOC Engineering.
  • Oil transport: COSCO Shipping (8 days, 5 boards), COSCO Shipping Development (2 boards), China Merchants South Oil (2 boards).

• Secondary main line: Shipping/ports.

  • Strongest in oil transport; led by COSCO Shipping and COSCO Shipping Development; benefiting from crude oil transportation demand and rising freight rates.

• Disaster zones (avoid pitfalls):
  Semiconductors, military industry, small metals, AI, STAR 50; high-flying stocks heavily down-limit, very strong loss effects.

IV. Short-term key data (reference)

• Consecutive board height: 3 boards (sentiment suppression).
• Upgrade rate: 1→2 ≈ 24%, 2→3 ≈ 30%.
• Board-breaking rate: about 35% (high divergence at high levels).
• Order book strength: Large for the “Three Big Oil” and COSCO Shipping; high recognition of main lines.
• Capital flow: Outflow from tech/growth, inflow into oil & gas/shipping/banking defensive sectors.

V. Today (March 4) short-term strategy

• Sentiment judgment: After hitting the bottom, there may be oversold recovery, but main line still favors oil & gas/shipping continuation.
• Operation directions:
  • Low buy main line: retests of the “central army” stocks like the three big oil companies, COSCO Shipping, COSCO Shipping Development.
  • First board arbitrage: oil & gas/oil services with strong order books and good turnover.
  • Avoid: high-level tech, military, small metals, and stocks with ongoing down-limits.
  • Risks: geopolitical news fluctuations, secondary market bottoming, weak board-breaking and re-closure.

Pre-market thoughts and reflections for March 4 (please think actively and respond efficiently):

1. Pingtan closure expectation stocks performed well this week with oscillations. Yesterday, in extreme market conditions, they surged then fell back. If the market stabilizes and continues, that’s ideal. Do you think the two Pingtan stocks are just shaking out or are the main players starting to oscillate and distribute?

2. The oil main line missed this wave. Long-time followers know I previously hotly traded Tongyuan Oil and Intercontinental Oil & Gas, which turned into bullish stocks. Those who can be seen by Ba Ge are truly bullish stocks. I underestimated the national defense resolve of Yibao. How long do you think the oil sector will last? Which related stocks do you still favor?

3. Gold futures are starting to decline, and gold gains are quite high. Do you think gold-related stocks still have room for speculation?

4. The commercial space market worth trillions, do you think there will be a second wave? Or has the commercial space sector fully fizzled out?

Special thanks to a fan who yesterday rewarded over 25,000 points and became a Golden Fan: @wmnwbw, new member of Buffett Golden Fan Group.
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