Hundreds of rivers flow eastward like a rainbow, soaring straight up through ninety thousand layers of the sky.

In the next two months, my focus is solely on 002455; everything else is noise! [Taogu Ba]

Why am I so confident? Because the 10x miracle of Zhengdan Shares in 2024 is being reenacted by Baichuan!
Let’s review how Zhengdan became a monster:

• Starting market cap: 1.4 billion, tiny and insignificant
• TMA global market share: 30%, industry second (American Innospec) suddenly shut down permanently!
• One-third of global capacity lost, TMA price soared from 12,000 to 60,000
• Zhengdan’s performance skyrocketed from less than 10 million to 1.19 billion, a 119-fold increase
• Stock price? from 2.83 yuan to 31.89 yuan, a 1026% increase, the first 10x stock in 2024

What’s Zhengdan’s path?
Supply shock → Price increase → Performance explosion → Stock price soaring

What is Baichuan Shares (002455) doing now?
Exactly the same!

• Core product TMP (Trimethylolpropane): already up 43.71% this year, now at 12,000 yuan/ton
• Coincidence? When Zhengdan started, TMA also began rising from 12,000 yuan
• Supply side story is here: Ningxia plant reduction + overseas capacity exit, supply and demand tightening
• Global TMP landscape? Baichuan is the domestic leader, holding 30,000 tons of capacity
• Market cap? around 7 billion, slightly larger than Zhengdan when it started, but what’s the current market? In 2024, Zhengdan’s market daily turnover was hundreds of billions, now it’s two to three trillion daily

Most importantly: TMP price increases haven’t yet reflected in performance!

Zhengdan’s price rise took a quarter to translate into earnings, giving many a chance to jump in. Now Baichuan is at that same point— the theme is hot, earnings haven’t arrived yet, isn’t this the most lucrative window?

Last weekend, Iran and Israel clashed directly, crude oil soared to 74, causing many holders to panic: Will Baichuan’s TMP price increase be blown away by a sudden attack?

Haha, divine help! I didn’t hold any beforehand, so I just got a chance to buy low!

Let’s analyze why I dare to buy against the trend:

1. How does crude oil transmission reach TMP?
   Chain: Crude oil → Naphtha → Propylene → Butyraldehyde → TMP
   Transmission time: 2-3 weeks
   Transmission efficiency: 50-60%

A 20% rise in crude oil theoretically leads to a 10-12% increase in TMP.

2. How do chemical prices usually move during wars?
   Russia-Ukraine war: crude oil +30%, butyraldehyde +25%
   Israel-Hamas conflict: crude oil +8%, acrylic acid +5%

Pattern: short-term sentiment, medium-term costs, long-term supply and demand

3. Will this affect the Hormuz Strait?
   Current statements:

• Iran: not seeking to expand the war
• US: will not send troops
• Israel: accepts ceasefire framework

Most likely scenario: limited conflict, no escalation (60% probability)
Oil prices spike then fall back, Baichuan uses the opportunity for a shakeout.

4. Will the TMP logic be broken?
   Straight answer: No.

The core of this TMP price increase is “supply contraction” (domestic 100,000 tons exited in recent years), not cost-driven.

Oil price rises are just icing on the cake, not a lifesaver.

Has Zhengdan been interrupted by the Israel-Hamas conflict or Red Sea crisis in 2024? No.

The real monster stock logic is supply and demand imbalance, not macro sentiment.

5. Trading strategy**

Today’s gap down? That’s your chance to buy in.
The more intense the shakeout, the cleaner the chips.
Q1 earnings report in April will reveal the truth.

Either become a legend or stay quiet.
This is my proof.

Disclaimer: All above are personal guesses; no one can predict war, don’t blame me if you lose money.

(Those who like this week will eat meat, those who keep pushing will get rich every day, and those who watch all year will see $Baichuan Shares (sz002455)$ soar!)