Chemical industry futures and stocks both surge! Social security funds heavily hold 7 key focus stocks

Affected by geopolitical tensions, domestic chemical futures main contracts collectively surged, with multiple varieties rising simultaneously, fueling market linkage trends. Coupled with expectations of import supply pressure and the pass-through effect of rising product prices, market sentiment was further boosted, leading to a rally in chemical stocks on the A-share market and increased sector enthusiasm.

Methanol main contract hits limit-up for two consecutive days

On March 3, several chemical futures main contracts saw significant gains, with the methanol main contract hitting the limit-up for two consecutive trading days. Main contracts for plastics and polypropylene also hit the limit-up, while pure benzene rose by 6.76%.

The collective price increase in chemical products is mainly driven by concerns over import conditions triggered by tense Middle East tensions.

According to Longzhong Information data, as of February 2026, Iran’s methanol capacity totals 17.39 million tons per year, accounting for 59.78% of Middle Eastern methanol capacity and 22.86% of international (excluding China) methanol capacity.

In other varieties, Iran’s urea exports are about 4.5 million tons in 2024, ranking third globally. Import-dependent chemicals such as sulfur and strontium carbonate may also be affected by geopolitical factors.

Industrial Securities research reports suggest that, amid escalating geopolitical tensions, markets may worry that domestic plant operations could be impacted, reducing actual output. Additionally, transportation disruptions could lead to decreased imported cargo arriving domestically and related expectations, potentially pushing prices higher. Dongxing Securities notes that Iran’s abundant oil and gas resources give it a competitive advantage in certain bulk chemicals, significantly influencing the global supply chain.

Strong performance of related chemical stocks

On March 3, related chemical stocks performed strongly, with an average increase of 2.13%. Many stocks, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Guanghui Energy, and Orient Shenghong, hit the daily limit-up, while Yankuang Energy and Baofeng Energy rose by over 8%.

In terms of performance, according to rough estimates from Securities Times and Data Treasure, more than 30 listed companies in A-shares involved in price-increasing chemicals such as methanol, urea, sulfur, polypropylene, and ethylene glycol.

Regarding earnings, 25 companies have already released 2025 performance forecasts or interim reports. Based on the lower bounds of these reports, three companies are expected to turn profitable, two are expected to reduce losses, and three are projected to see year-over-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders.

Among those expected to turn profitable, Orient Shenghong’s forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders has the highest lower limit, ranging from 100 million to 150 million yuan. The company’s 16 million-ton-per-year Shenghong integrated refining and chemical project and other industrial segments are operating smoothly. According to responses on investor Q&A platforms, the company currently has sulfur capacity of 600,000 tons per year, and its main products include 1.9 million tons per year of ethylene glycol.

Baofeng Energy is expected to see the highest growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with forecasts of 11 to 12 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 73.57% to 89.34%.

Social Security Fund heavily holds 7 key stocks

In terms of institutional focus, 13 stocks are covered by five or more rating agencies, with Baofeng Energy and Hualu Hengsheng among the most rated, each exceeding 20 agencies.

Among these stocks, Hualu Hengsheng, Haohua Technology, XinAo Co., Satellite Chemical, Guanghui Energy, Hubei Yihua, and Baofeng Energy were heavily held by social security funds as of the third quarter of 2025. Based on the proportion of social security holdings in circulating A-shares, Hualu Hengsheng, Haohua Technology, and XinAo Co. have the highest percentages at 7.49%, 3.21%, and 3.14%, respectively.

The top ten circulating shareholders of Hualu Hengsheng include four social security funds and one pension fund, with a combined market value exceeding 4 billion yuan. The stock price has been rising steadily since November 2025, with a total increase of 59.46%, reaching a new high again on March 3.

(Article source: Data Treasure)