Soybean Oil Inventories Surge Amid Robust Export Activity and Strong Market Momentum

Futures markets wrapped up Tuesday’s trading session on a positive note, with soybean contracts posting modest gains across the board. The national cash price for soybeans advanced to $10.68½ per bushel, reflecting the broader strength evident throughout the complex. Soybean oil, a critical byproduct of the crushing process, demonstrated particular strength during the session, signaling growing demand and improving inventory conditions in the broader oilseed market.

NOPA Crush Data Signals Strong Processing Activity

The National Oilseed Processors Association released January crush figures showing 221.56 million bushels processed—a result that surpassed analyst expectations. The volume represents a 10.57% increase compared to the prior year, underscoring robust demand from domestic crushers. However, the data showed a sequential decline of 1.52% from December levels, indicating some seasonal normalization. Meal futures, a key output of the crushing process, declined modestly by 10 to 40 cents in the near-term contracts, suggesting adequate supply conditions for this feed ingredient.

Soybean Oil Stocks Rally on Month-Over-Month Strength

The most compelling development from the NOPA release centered on soybean oil inventory levels. Stocks rose 15.6% compared to the previous month and posted an impressive 49.07% year-over-year increase. This substantial buildup of soybean oil reserves reflects both continued processing activity and potential demand considerations in downstream markets. The inventory strength provides market participants with increased flexibility and suggests adequate supply availability as spring season approaches.

Export Shipments Post Impressive Year-Over-Year Gains

Export inspection data painted an even more bullish picture for U.S. soybean demand. Weekly shipments reached 1.203 million metric tons (44.2 million bushels) for the week ending February 12, representing a 5.01% increase from the prior week and a remarkable 65.3% surge compared to the same period last year. China emerged as the dominant destination, importing 684,069 metric tons, followed by Egypt with 223,890 metric tons and Colombia with 81,455 metric tons. Year-to-date marketing year shipments have totaled 24.35 million metric tons (894.7 million bushels), marking a 32.4% advancement on a year-over-year basis.

Futures Markets Extend Rally Across Contract Months

Strength extended across the futures curve, with March 26 contracts closing up 1 cent at $11.34, May 26 contracts gaining ¼ cent to finish at $11.48¾, and July 26 contracts rising 1¼ cents to $11.61¾. The nearby cash market held firm at $10.68½, up 1¼ cents on the session. This consistent pricing strength across multiple contract months indicates market confidence in underlying supply-demand fundamentals and suggests that soybean oil and related complex products remain well-supported.

Brazilian Harvest Pace Lags Prior Year Expectations

Looking ahead to the supply picture, AgRural’s assessment of the Brazilian soybean crop showed completion of just 21% as of the previous Thursday, trailing the 24% harvest pace recorded during the same period in 2025. This slower harvest progression in the world’s second-largest soybean producer could have implications for both soybean oil availability and global supply dynamics heading into the spring season. The gradual pace of South American harvest activity provides additional support for the current pricing environment.

Market Takeaway

Tuesday’s session reinforced the strength in soybean complex fundamentals, with soybean oil inventory gains and robust export activity providing key support. The combination of strong overseas demand, rising crushing volumes, and building oil stocks creates a backdrop for continued market attention to commodity trends in the months ahead.