Open Source Securities: Issue a Buy rating for Tongli Co., Ltd.

Open Source Securities Co., Ltd. Zhu Haibin recently conducted research on Tongli Co., Ltd. and published the research report “Beijing Stock Exchange Information Update: Leading Unmanned Mining Vehicle Manufacturer, No-Cabin Mining Truck Prototype Rolls Off the Line, Estimated Revenue Growth of +7.37% in 2025,” giving Tongli Co., Ltd. a “Buy” rating.

Tongli Co., Ltd. (920599)

Estimated 2025 revenue of 6.597 billion yuan (+7.37%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 858 million yuan (+8.19%)

The company released its 2025 performance forecast, expecting revenue of 6.597 billion yuan in 2025, up 7.37% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 858 million yuan, up 8.19%. Based on the company’s performance forecast, we maintain our earnings predictions for 2025-2027. We expect the net profits attributable to shareholders to be 858 million, 980 million, and 1.077 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS of 1.86, 2.12, and 2.33 yuan per share. The corresponding PE ratios at current stock prices are 11.5x, 10.1x, and 9.2x. The empowerment of new energy and autonomous driving technologies presents opportunities for the company. We maintain a “Buy” rating.

The company actively expands into overseas coal markets, with new energy mining trucks expected to benefit from overseas power infrastructure development.

According to company announcement data, currently in overseas markets, coal, non-ferrous metals, and engineering each account for about one-third of downstream demand. The proportion of overseas coal is expected to rise to over 50%, with non-ferrous metals accounting for 20%-30%. Since coal transportation volume is much higher than that of non-ferrous metals, the future development space for overseas coal markets is broad. On the other hand, in the short term, due to overseas customers’ cautious sentiment and underdeveloped local power grids and infrastructure, there are currently fewer new energy products among direct sales clients. However, central state-owned enterprises will purchase company’s extended-range and pure electric products during overseas construction projects. Such construction-related new energy products account for about one-third. Meanwhile, to address the poor overseas infrastructure, multiple parties are jointly launching integrated solutions combining photovoltaic, energy storage, and electric vehicles, such as building photovoltaic power stations and energy storage facilities in Africa for self-use. It is expected that overseas new energy products will see large-scale deployment in 2026-2027.

Unmanned mining trucks with no cab have completed prototype testing, with high-value gross margins helping the company improve profitability.

In 2025, the company’s unmanned vehicle models are expected to continue rapid growth. The no-cabin autonomous mining truck has completed prototype testing. Compared to the previous generation, its core differences include: 1) removing the cab to increase payload capacity and transportation efficiency; 2) saving space to enlarge the cargo box; 3) optimizing component layout for easier maintenance. In the first half of 2025, the company collaborated with multiple autonomous driving development firms such as Yikong Zhijia to promote large-scale, commercial deployment of autonomous mining vehicles. According to China Coal Industry Association data, the number of unmanned mining trucks at open-pit coal mines in China is expected to reach 10,000 by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 106.78% from 2023 to 2026. Additionally, current new energy products have higher gross margins than fuel vehicles, which helps improve the company’s profitability.

Risk tips: technological iteration risks, risks of concentrated downstream industries, market competition risks.

The above content is compiled from public information by Securities Star, generated by AI algorithms (Wang Xin Suan Bei 310104345710301240019), and does not constitute investment advice.