Why Is SPY ETF Down Today, 3/3/2026?

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY -0.88% ▼ declined 0.88% today, March 3, due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which raised fears of surging inflation and economic disruption.

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Importantly, SPY closely tracks the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which was down 0.94% in the regular trading session, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) fell 1.09%.

Key Catalysts That Can Move the SPY ETF

This week, several key economic data points, a heavy earnings schedule for several S&P 500 components, and shifting geopolitical tensions are expected to influence market sentiment.

The following data releases will provide insight into inflation, manufacturing health, and the labor market:

• ADP Employment Report

• ISM Services Index

• U.S. Import and Export Price Indices

• Nonfarm Payrolls report

Further, earnings from several large-cap companies, such as Broadcom AVGO -1.56% ▼ , Okta OKTA -1.96% ▼ , Costco COST +0.50% ▲ , and Kroger KR -0.59% ▼ , will influence the ETF’s performance this week.

Also, several Fed officials are scheduled to speak, including Jeffrey Schmid and Neel Kashkari. These remarks are closely watched for hints on the path of interest rates ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

Fund Flows and Sentiment

SPY’s five-day net inflows totaled $2 billion, showing that investors put capital into the ETF over the past five trading days. Meanwhile, its three-month average trading volume is 80.45 million shares.

It must be noted that the retail sentiment for the SPY ETF is positive, and hedge fund managers have also increased their holdings of the ETF in the last quarter.

SPY’s Price Forecast

According to TipRanks’ unique ETF analyst consensus, which is based on a weighted average of analyst ratings on its holdings, SPY has a Moderate Buy rating. The Street’s average price target of $825.08 for the SPY ETF implies an upside potential of 21.28%.

Currently, SPY’s five holdings with the highest upside potential are:

• Oracle ORCL -0.16% ▼

• ServiceNow NOW +3.45% ▲

• Datadog DDOG +0.59% ▲

• Adobe Systems ADBE +3.88% ▲

• KKR KKR -0.07% ▼

Meanwhile, its five holdings with the greatest downside potential are:

• Loews L -0.62% ▼

• Moderna MRNA -5.71% ▼

• Ciena CIEN -5.84% ▼

• APA Corp. APA +0.50% ▲

• LyondellBasell LYB +0.57% ▲

Revealingly, SPY’s ETF Smart Score is seven, implying that this ETF is likely to perform in line with the broader market over the long term.

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