Why Amgen's GLP-1 Stock May Deliver Better Returns Than Expensive Eli Lilly

The GLP-1 drug revolution has created a massive investment opportunity, but not all stocks benefiting from this trend are equally attractive from a valuation perspective. Eli Lilly has captured much of the market attention, transforming into the world’s most valuable healthcare company with a market cap around $950 billion. However, there’s another compelling opportunity that savvy investors shouldn’t overlook.

Consider this: while Eli Lilly’s remarkable 400% gain over the past five years makes headlines, the stock now trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 32 — a premium valuation that limits near-term upside. For investors seeking exposure to GLP-1 growth without paying such a hefty premium, Amgen presents an interesting alternative worth examining.

Amgen’s Attractive Valuation vs. Eli Lilly’s Premium Pricing

The valuation gap between these two pharmaceutical giants is striking. Amgen trades at just 16 times forward earnings, roughly half of Eli Lilly’s multiple. Over the past five years, Amgen’s stock has appreciated a modest 34%, suggesting it hasn’t enjoyed the same speculative enthusiasm as its competitor. This more conservative price-to-earnings ratio could indicate the market has underpriced Amgen’s potential in the GLP-1 space.

The current pricing creates an interesting dynamic: while Eli Lilly investors have already captured substantial gains, Amgen shareholders could be positioned for significant upside if the company’s GLP-1 pipeline delivers clinical success. The key question for value-oriented investors becomes whether Amgen represents overlooked value in a crowded market segment.

MariTide’s Quarterly Dosing Could Give Amgen a Competitive Edge

Amgen’s lead GLP-1 candidate, MariTide, represents a potentially game-changing approach to treatment administration. Unlike Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound — both requiring weekly injections — MariTide can be administered monthly. Even more compelling is the possibility, according to Amgen CEO Bob Bradway, that the drug may eventually require dosing only four times annually.

This quarterly dosing frequency could prove attractive to a substantial portion of the patient population. While oral formulations have generated excitement in the market, most pills require daily administration, which presents adherence challenges. For patients who prioritize convenience, the combination of injection-based delivery with quarterly dosing might represent an optimal middle ground.

Clinical trial data supports MariTide’s efficacy profile. The medication has demonstrated the ability to help patients lose approximately 20% of body weight over a 52-week period — a result comparable to currently approved GLP-1 treatments. This parity in weight loss outcomes, combined with the superior dosing convenience, provides a meaningful differentiation factor as MariTide progresses through its Phase 3 development stage.

The GLP-1 Market Has Room for Multiple Winners

The addressable market opportunity extends far beyond Eli Lilly. Industry analysts project the GLP-1 drug market could exceed $150 billion within the next decade, a market size sufficiently large to accommodate multiple successful competitors. This scale suggests that strong returns aren’t exclusive to first-mover advantage — companies that deliver compelling products with meaningful patient benefits have substantial room to gain market share.

Amgen’s position within this expanding market could shift meaningfully once MariTide achieves regulatory approval, assuming successful Phase 3 trial outcomes. A successful launch would validate the company’s ability to compete in this high-growth therapeutic area and potentially unlock significant share price appreciation. The combination of current valuation affordability and a pending catalyst — regulatory approval of a differentiated product — creates the profile of a value opportunity.

Is Now the Right Time to Consider Amgen?

For investors concerned about missing the GLP-1 growth narrative, Amgen offers a more attractively priced entry point than Eli Lilly. The valuation discount, combined with the potential of MariTide’s quarterly dosing regimen, creates a compelling investment case that merits serious consideration.

That said, investment decisions should always account for your individual risk tolerance and time horizon. The pharmaceutical sector carries inherent risks, including regulatory uncertainty and clinical trial setbacks. While Amgen’s fundamentals and pipeline appear promising, past performance offers no guarantee of future results.

The broader GLP-1 market opportunity remains substantial and multifaceted. Smart investors recognize that this growth narrative need not be confined to the highest-priced names in the sector. Sometimes the best opportunities lie with quality companies trading at reasonable valuations — and Amgen may represent precisely that scenario.