Bitcoin retreats over the weekend amid trade tensions and shutdown risks

The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant pullback over the weekend, amid a mix of economic and political factors that have heightened investor anxiety. Bitcoin’s downward movement coincided with a critical period for the global economy, when a series of trade decisions and monetary regulations threaten market stability. In this context, BTC price behavior becomes a barometer of market nervousness.

Trade Disruptions and Escalating Tariffs

The core of this crisis is represented by the aggressive trade policy promoted by the American administration, with a focus on tariff measures directed at Canada and China. President Donald Trump issued multiple warnings, signaling a willingness to use tariffs as a negotiation tool in a trade confrontation of global scope. This has triggered legitimate fears that both trading partners might respond with retaliatory measures, generating increasing volatility in financial markets.

Additionally, there are speculations about a possible coordinated intervention between the United States and Japan regarding the yen exchange rate. Although this threat appears less immediate than the trade conflict, it could disrupt the balance of arbitrage markets, especially affecting financial instruments denominated in yen, with implications that could propagate throughout the broader crypto asset ecosystem.

Government Shutdown Risk Increases Market Tension

Another regulatory concern stems from the rising likelihood of a US government shutdown. Prediction platforms such as Kalshi estimate a 78.5% chance of federal operations being interrupted due to the expiration of allocated budget resources on January 31. However, a key difference marks this situation compared to the October precedent last year: some government departments have already secured funding for the upcoming period, which could limit the negative impact on markets.

Bitcoin Behavior and Expected Market Reactions

Technical indicators signal increasing selling pressure, with Bitcoin’s turnover rate following an upward trajectory over the weekend, a clear sign of growing panic. Recent data showing a +1.26% variation over the past 24 hours, BTC remains in a fragile position, subject to flows from the global stock markets. Investors are preparing for the opening of Asian and US sessions, with the upcoming moments being decisive for the market direction.

Historical negative market responses to Trump’s tariff threats suggest that investor reactions can trigger a cascade of corrective actions from the administration, intensifying volatility. This weekend demonstrated the fragility of financial markets’ balance in the face of rapidly evolving geopolitical and budgetary factors, and attention to developments in the coming hours and days remains critically important for all industry participants.