Sellers regain dominance in the derivatives market: Can the rebound continue amid the lack of Bitcoin spot demand?

【BlockBeats】The weeks-long buyer-led trend has ended, and sellers are now regaining control of the derivatives market. More importantly, the US spot market has not provided the expected hedging demand. These two signals combined send a clear message—the market is entering a risk-averse mode.

Looking at the active buy and sell order strength index makes this obvious. The flow of active trading has reversed sharply, shifting to the seller side. The active buy-sell imbalance index is now -0.0917, and the Z-score of active trading intensity (based on 90-day data) has reached -1.81. What does this indicate? A sustained dominance of selling pressure. Compared to a few days ago when the signal was near neutral, this is a significant deterioration. The short-sell ratio has risen above 0.546, while the long ratio is only 0.454. What does this skew tell us? Sellers are not only holding positions but also actively executing market sell orders, directly amplifying downward price pressure.

As long as the Z-score remains in the negative zone, any rebound appears fragile. Those upward movements are likely just short-term pauses and are unlikely to develop into a trend reversal. When can the market improve? The first signal is when the indicator returns to the neutral zone and the negative imbalance continues to narrow.

Another detail that cannot be ignored is that the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index is still negative at around -0.077. What does this mean? US market buyers are not willing to purchase at prices higher than the global market. In this environment, volatility in the derivatives market may trigger short-term price fluctuations and rebounds, but without spot support, a lasting recovery is difficult. This is not a traditional “panic sell-off,” but rather a lack of buying pressure. Normally, buyer pressure is key to confirming market health. Genuine signs of improvement will only appear when the premium index moves out of negative territory and US spot demand truly returns.