## PEPE Stalls Before Key Moving Averages – On-Chain Heat Cooling Sparks Warning

**Five consecutive days of decline, a 15% drop this week, PEPE enters "Ice Age"**

Pepe (PEPE)'s performance this week has been a "mixed bag": after last week's 72% rally, this week saw five consecutive trading days of decline, with a weekly loss of up to 15%. Latest data shows PEPE dropped another 8.69% in 24 hours, with investor enthusiasm clearly shifting from "chasing gains" to "cutting losses." This stark contrast raises the question—can the previous gains hold steady?

**Market sentiment cooling is well-documented**

On-chain data indicates this decline is not unfounded. According to analysis platform data, PEPE's new wallet addresses (Network Growth) fell to 1,237 on Thursday, sharply contrasting with the high of 2,673 on Sunday. Meanwhile, active addresses per day shrank from a peak of 6,476 to 3,737, a decline of over 45%. Trading volume also took a hit: Thursday's volume dropped to 738 million PEPE, far below the 1.66 billion peak in January.

Even more telling is the dramatic drop in social heat—PEPE's Social Dominance on social media and discussion rankings fell from 0.282% on January 2 to 0.117% on Thursday, indicating retail interest is rapidly cooling.

**The 100-day moving average becomes a "life or death" line**

From a technical perspective, PEPE stands at a crossroads. The current price hovers around $0.00000598, precisely at the 100-day moving average—after falling 15% from the $0.00000726 peak on Monday, this MA has become the last line of defense for bulls.

The key question is: can it hold? If this support is broken, the next line of defense is the 50-day moving average at $0.00000519—almost coinciding with the November 4 low of $0.00000521. If further breakdown occurs, PEPE's correction could expand into double digits.

**Momentum indicators flashing red**

From a momentum perspective, sell signals are becoming clearer. RSI is currently at 60, not yet oversold, but has retreated from overbought territory and is approaching the midline. More notably, MACD shows the signal line and fast line converging—the green histogram bars are shrinking. If a death cross occurs and a red histogram forms, it will confirm strengthening downward momentum.

**Is there still a rebound chance?**

It's not entirely hopeless. If a V-shaped rebound occurs, PEPE could retest the 200-day moving average at $0.00000744. But this depends on holding the 100-day MA support; otherwise, any rebound might just be a "dead cat bounce." Investors should closely watch the $0.00000598 level—this will determine whether PEPE continues to correct or begins to rebound.