AAVE Breakout Signal Check: Messages from Upper Resistance and Multi-Layer Indicators

Price and Technical Aspects: Approaching the Upper Channel, but ‘Confirmed’ Not Yet

AAVE is currently trading at $174.53 and approaching the upper trendline of the downward parallel channel formed since mid-August. To break out of the consolidation zone over the past few weeks, this upper boundary must be surpassed, but simply touching it is not enough.

The channel top and the 50-day EMA(176.99 dollars) overlap, forming a dual resistance zone(. The key point for investors to watch is the closing price in the $176.99–$179.27 range. Confirming a close beyond this band could signal a short-term bullish reversal.

Technical indicators also support upward momentum. The RSI stands at 53, showing an upward trend above the neutral 50 line), and the MACD is experiencing a golden cross with expanding bullish histogram.

Harmony of Sequential Signals: On-Chain and Derivative Data Send a Consistent Message

In addition to technical strength, market fundamentals also support an “activation of buying.”

Spot Market: Overheated signals are normalizing, and a pure buy dominance(buy dominance) is forming. This indicates a healthy supply-demand structure, not just a simple rally.

Futures Market: Large whale orders are being detected, signaling institutional capital entry.

Funding Rate Flip: The OI-weighted funding rate has shifted from negative to +0.0070%. This indicates a bullish bias in long positions, and past cases show that AAVE experienced strong rebounds at this level.

The simultaneous alignment of these three signals is rare. It suggests that capital movements supporting a breakout are already in place.

Bullish Scenario: Setting Target and Profit Zone

If the daily close exceeds $179.27 on the upside, a bullish confirmation is in place.

• Waiting Capital Entry Zone: $176.99–$179.27 range
• Technical Upside Target: $267.68(projected distance based on channel width)
• Stop-Loss Level: $158.27(weekly support level)

Reversal Risk: Levels for Re-Test if Failure Occurs

Conversely, if the price fails to close above $176.99, it could revert to the original downward channel trend. In this case, the first downside level is expected at the December 31 low of $146.63. Interestingly, this price also acts as the channel’s median line.

In conclusion, AAVE is near a technical turning point, with multiple market signals aligned positively. However, confirmation depends on a breakout above the top and a break of recent highs.