#Strategy加仓BTC 【Gold Market Watch】1.15 Morning Analysis

The international situation is providing strong support for precious metal prices. Three key factors are resonating:

**Geopolitical Risks Rising**——The Middle East situation remains volatile, tensions between the US and Iran escalate again, and the Gaza conflict shows no signs of resolution, leading to continuous inflows of safe-haven funds. Such uncertainties often boost demand for safe-haven assets.

**De-dollarization Accelerating**——Potential conflicts between the US and Venezuela, Arctic territorial disputes, and other factors are raising doubts about the credibility of the dollar globally. Central banks are increasing gold reserves to hedge risks, and the dollar's reserve currency status faces long-term pressure.

**Federal Reserve Policy Shift**——Expectations of rate cuts are rising, and policy independence is being questioned, putting pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields. The cost of holding gold has significantly decreased, and central banks worldwide remain eager to buy gold, with sufficient medium- and long-term upward momentum. Short-term pullbacks can be viewed as opportunities to position, with subsequent prospects for oscillating upward toward around $4700.

**Unemployment Data Highlights**
Unemployment claims are a key reference. Once released, if gold ETF holdings increase and institutional speculative net longs rise, it indicates smart money is clearly bullish. The resonance between capital flow and fundamentals will reinforce the upward expectation. Coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, safe-haven demand will be further amplified.

If Friday’s non-farm payrolls also come in weaker than expected, and employment continues to cool, it will form a complete logical chain—gold prices break through the consolidation range, and a new rally could begin.

**Key Technical Levels**
Short-term focus: $4580-$4593
Strong support zone: $4570-$4575 (yesterday’s low)
Bullish defense zone: $4570-$4580 (low risk of effective breakdown)

4-hour chart reference:
- Short-term support: $4580-$4596
- Important support: $4548-$4555
- Resistance above: $4650

**Morning Strategy**
Go long in the $4585-$4595 range, add positions at $4575, targeting $4630-$4640, and watch for a breakout above $4660-$4680.

Market changes rapidly; specific operations should be flexible.