A critical policy ruling is imminent. Tomorrow at 10 a.m. EST, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the legality of global tariffs, a decision that could have profound implications for the crypto market in 2026.

Does this seem like a matter of traditional finance? Not entirely. This shock will simultaneously impact Wall Street and highly leveraged crypto investors. Data from prediction platforms in the market clearly illustrate the point—"the probability that these tariffs will be deemed illegal" has soared to 76%. To put it another way, nearly 8 out of 10 traders betting with real money are bearish on the legality of these tariffs.

On the surface, the abolition of tariffs appears to be good news. Many traders are shouting "bullish," reasoning that removing tariffs is equivalent to tax cuts for consumers, which could invigorate the market. But this judgment overlooks the most critical point.

The real issue lies in the subsequent impact of "tax refunds." Once tariffs are ruled illegal, what scale of refunds will the U.S. Treasury face? Conservative estimates suggest around $600 billion, while more aggressive calculations could exceed $1 trillion. This is not a small accounting adjustment; it’s a liquidity withdrawal of trillions from the system. For high-leverage trading and asset pricing, such a scale of liquidity change means that seasoned players in the circle should be well aware of the implications.

Behind the apparent market fluctuations are these invisible systemic risks. Tonight’s data release could mark the beginning of a market revaluation.